Taiwan held its combined presidential and legislative elections on January 13, 2024. In the presidential race, Lai Ching‑te of the incumbent, more China‑skeptical / pro‑U.S. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won with about 40% of the vote, defeating Hou Yu‑ih of the Kuomintang (KMT), which is generally viewed as more China‑friendly and Beijing’s preferred interlocutor. Lai’s victory gave the DPP an unprecedented third consecutive presidential term, meaning the pro‑West party remained in control of the presidency rather than being replaced by the more China‑friendly opposition. (cnbc.com)

In the legislative elections held the same day, the DPP did lose its majority, and the KMT became the largest single party in the Legislative Yuan (52 seats to the DPP’s 51), with the Taiwan People’s Party holding the balance of power. However, no party secured a majority, and executive power stayed with the DPP president. (en.wikipedia.org)

The normalized prediction describes the China‑friendlier party as winning power and replacing the then‑ruling, more pro‑West party in the 2024 national election. Since the presidency—the key lever of national executive power—remained with the DPP, and the DPP was not replaced as the ruling party, this outcome contradicts the prediction. The partial legislative gains by the KMT do not amount to the pro‑China side “taking power” in the sense of forming a new national government. Therefore, the prediction is best scored as wrong.