Sacks’ prediction was that Ukraine’s June 2023 counteroffensive would make only minimal territorial gains and would fail to break through Russia’s prepared defensive lines in a way that significantly reversed Russian territorial gains. In fact, the 2023 offensive (June–Dec 2023) is now widely characterized as an “operational failure,” with Ukraine recapturing only 14 villages and roughly a few hundred square kilometers (about 370 km²) of territory—incremental gains relative to the front’s overall size and to Russian holdings. (en.wikipedia.org) Analyses at the end of 2023 noted that “the territorial lines of June 2023 have barely changed” and that Ukraine had retaken only about 200 square miles (~520 km²) in 2023, underscoring the limited territorial impact. (washingtonpost.com) Key operational objectives—such as breaching Russian defenses deeply enough to reach Tokmak or the Sea of Azov and sever the land bridge to Crimea—were not achieved, and by early December 2023 multiple international outlets described the counteroffensive as stalled or failed. (en.wikipedia.org) Later, by May 2025, Russia had even recaptured all 14 villages Ukraine had gained in the 2023 offensive, meaning there was no lasting significant reversal of Russian territorial control from that operation. (en.wikipedia.org) Given the small, temporary territorial gains and the failure to achieve the main breakthrough and rollback objectives, Sacks’ forward-looking assessment that the counteroffensive was “not going anywhere” in strategic terms aligns with subsequent outcomes.