Friedberg @ 01:12:07Inconclusive
economyclimate
By the end of the 21st century (circa 2100), global primary energy production will need to be approximately 5–10 times higher than its 2023 level in order to support projected GDP-per-capita growth trends.
if you look over nearly any historical time scale, since we've had industrial energy production on Earth, for every 1% increase in GDP per capita, you see a roughly 1.2% increase in energy consumption per capita. And so if you forecast out by the end of the century, the GDP per capita estimates in the US and around the world, we need to increase global energy production by roughly, you know, anywhere from 5 to 10 x.
Explanation
The prediction concerns the state of global primary energy production by the end of the 21st century (around the year 2100). As of today (November 30, 2025), we are only about a quarter of the way through the century, so there is no way to empirically determine whether global energy production will in fact be 5–10× the 2023 level by 2100. While models and forecasts of future GDP-per-capita and energy demand exist, they are speculative and cannot yet confirm or falsify the specific 5–10× claim. Therefore the accuracy of this prediction cannot currently be evaluated.