The prediction window has not begun or completed yet, so it is too early to judge. Friedberg’s statement was conditional and time‑bounded: if the U.S. does not change its fiscal trajectory, there will be a “massive crisis… maybe it’s in five years or ten years” from 2023. That implies a rough window of 2028–2033. Today is 2025, which is before even the early edge of the 5‑year mark (2028). Regardless of current fiscal conditions or market stresses, the prediction explicitly gives up to a decade for the crisis to materialize. Because that period has not elapsed (and in fact has not yet started, if we take the lower bound literally), the accuracy of the prediction cannot yet be determined.