The prediction window is “within a few years” from early 2023, which the user normalized to roughly 2026–2028. Today is November 30, 2025, so we have not yet reached the start of that evaluation window.

Even if we check current estimates of Amazon’s share of the global digital ad market (which various industry reports put in the low-to-mid teens as of 2024–2025), we still cannot say whether it will end up in the 15–20% range by 2026–2028. That outcome depends on future growth rates, competitive dynamics, and macro conditions that have not yet played out.

Because the prediction is explicitly about Amazon’s future share “in a few years” and that period has not yet arrived, the correct status is that it’s too early to judge whether the prediction is right or wrong.