Friedberg @ 00:16:52Wrong
techmarkets
When Google removes third-party cookies in 2024, it will become very difficult to track users across websites, and this change will significantly and negatively impact digital ad networks’ and publishers’ ability to target consumers and generate ad revenue starting in 2024.
Google has declared that they're removing third party cookies in 2024. This means that in 2024, it is going to be very hard to track a user from one website to the next... And that change is now going to make this hit very, very hard beginning in 2024. So the ad networks themselves are already being massively hurt by Apple's ID changes. The third party cookies being removed, it's becoming harder to target consumers, harder to make money as a for publishers.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction hinged on Google actually removing third‑party cookies in 2024, which was supposed to make it “very hard to track a user from one website to the next” and to “hit very, very hard beginning in 2024” for ad networks and publishers.
What happened instead:
- Limited test, not full removal. On January 4, 2024, Chrome began restricting third‑party cookies by default for only about 1% of Chrome users as a testing step tied to Privacy Sandbox, with a tentative plan to ramp to 100% later, subject to UK regulatory approval. The rest of Chrome traffic continued to use third‑party cookies normally, so cross‑site tracking remained broadly feasible in 2024. (privacysandbox.google.com)
- Full deprecation was delayed beyond 2024. During 2024, Google officially postponed completing third‑party cookie deprecation from late 2024 to early 2025. (techtarget.com)
- Then Google reversed course and canceled full deprecation. In July 2024 Google announced it would not kill third‑party cookies in Chrome after all, opting instead for a user‑choice model. Subsequent reporting and regulatory summaries confirm that Google abandoned the plan to block third‑party cookies by default. (cnbc.com)
- By 2025 the phase‑out plan and Privacy Sandbox were effectively ended, with cookies still fully usable. Later updates show Google formally ending its Privacy Sandbox deprecation path and deciding to keep third‑party cookies available in Chrome, with users managing them via settings rather than a forced shutdown. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Impact on tracking and revenue in 2024 was incremental and experimental, not a broad ‘very hard’ shock. Industry tests (e.g., Criteo and others) showed that if cookies were fully removed and only Privacy Sandbox were used, publisher revenue could drop sharply, but those were scenario tests. Because deprecation never went beyond the small‑scale 1% test population in 2024, the ecosystem did not experience the large, system‑wide revenue shock he predicted beginning in that year; instead, most discussion focused on preparation, testing, and uncertainty rather than realized collapse. (criteo.com)
Since (a) Google did not broadly remove third‑party cookies in 2024, (b) cross‑site tracking remained widely possible, and (c) the predicted significant, immediate negative hit to digital ad networks and publishers starting in 2024 did not materialize at scale, the prediction is best judged wrong.