Chamath @ 01:04:50Right
health
Within the subsequent vaccination cycles after mid‑2021, COVID‑19 vaccination for the general public will likely require booster shots and will likely shift to a multi‑component 'cocktail' of vaccines (e.g., targeting multiple variants), rather than a single original‑strain shot only.
Look, we're we're going to probably we're going to probably need a booster and we're probably going to be on a cocktail.View on YouTube
Explanation
Chamath made this prediction in July 2021, when the first vaccine series was still focused on the original strain.
1. Boosters for the general public did become standard.
- On September 22, 2021, the FDA first authorized a Pfizer‑BioNTech booster for higher‑risk groups, and then on November 19, 2021, expanded the EUA to all adults 18 and older, establishing boosters as part of routine Covid vaccination in the U.S. (fda.gov)
- CDC and ACIP documents describe booster doses as an ongoing part of the Covid‑19 vaccination program from late 2021 onward, confirming that subsequent vaccination cycles after mid‑2021 did indeed involve boosters for the broader public. (cdc.gov)
2. Vaccination did shift to multi‑component ‘cocktail’ shots (bivalent vaccines).
- On August 31, 2022, the FDA authorized bivalent mRNA boosters from Pfizer‑BioNTech and Moderna that include mRNA for both the original SARS‑CoV‑2 strain and Omicron BA.4/BA.5—i.e., a two‑component cocktail in a single shot. (uspharmacist.com)
- On September 1, 2022, CDC recommended these updated bivalent boosters for most people (Pfizer for ages 12+ and Moderna for 18+), making multi‑component “cocktail” boosters the standard for the general public. (archive.cdc.gov)
- In April 2023, the FDA further simplified schedules so that these bivalent (original + Omicron) vaccines were used for all doses for people ≥6 months, and the original monovalent mRNA vaccines were no longer authorized—meaning the U.S. was, for a time, effectively “on a cocktail” as Chamath described. (fda.gov)
3. Later shift back to single‑strain updated shots doesn’t negate the prediction.
- For the 2023–2024 and 2024–2025 seasons, the FDA moved to monovalent updated formulas (e.g., XBB.1.5, then KP.2), but this happened after the period in which the first post‑2021 vaccination cycles had already used bivalent cocktails. (cdc.gov)
Because (a) boosters became a routine expectation for Covid vaccination after mid‑2021 and (b) at least one major phase of those booster cycles for the general public used multi‑variant, bivalent “cocktail” vaccines rather than just the original‑strain shot, Chamath’s prediction is best classified as right.