Available evidence shows a substantial multi‑year increase in backup and distributed generator use in California, but it does not clearly isolate a distinct new surge specifically during the summer–fall 2021 fire season, so the prediction cannot be cleanly labeled right or wrong.

Key points:

• A 2021 CalMatters commentary, citing MCubed analysis of air‑district data, reports that non‑residential backup generators in the Bay Area increased 34% in three years, and that in Southern California deployment rose 22% in a single year. The authors state that, as California faces mega‑drought, rising electricity rates, and wildfire‑related shutoffs, “businesses and residents are increasingly turning to backup power generators” and describe a rapidly growing diesel “shadow grid.” (calmatters.org) This supports an ongoing generator buildup that is very visible by late 2021.
• Earlier data show that this backup‑power boom started well before 2021. A 2020 Haas Energy Institute/UC Berkeley blog, using survey data from Californians affected by 2019 wildfire‑related outages, found that nearly 15% of outage‑exposed households bought backup generators within six months, indicating a major residential generator adoption wave tied to 2019 PSPS events. (energyathaas.wordpress.com) A 2020 San Francisco Chronicle business report likewise noted that some Bay Area retailers saw around a 400% jump in generator sales during 2019 and continued elevated demand into 2020, driven by power shutoffs, wildfires, and heat waves. (sfchronicle.com) These suggest the “big push” in consumer purchases was already underway in 2019–2020, not uniquely triggered in mid‑2021.
• Policy and discourse in 2021 further confirm that portable and backup generators had become widespread and politically salient (e.g., California’s decision to phase out sales of new gas‑powered small engines, including portable generators, by 2028, which generated concern precisely because so many residents and businesses relied on them). (asphaltandrubber.com) However, neither regulatory documents nor market overviews provide CA‑specific sales or adoption data isolating the 2021 summer–fall fire season as a period of additional notable growth beyond the existing upward trend.

Because the evidence shows a strong and growing generator market in California by 2021 but does not clearly demonstrate that summer–fall 2021 itself featured a distinct, new “big power generator push” beyond the already‑elevated levels of 2019–2020, the status of Friedberg’s time‑specific prediction is ambiguous rather than clearly right or clearly wrong.