Chamath @ 01:18:10Right
climatescience
The observed trend over the prior decade of each year being warmer than almost all preceding years (i.e., continuing global temperature increases) will persist into the near future rather than reversing.
it's just going in the same place, I mean, and so if we're all of a sudden supposed to bet that a trend that has effectively been reliable for the last decade is going to turn, I'm not sure that that's a bet you'd want to makeView on YouTube
Explanation
Available climate data since June 2021 show that the long‑running warming trend has persisted, not reversed, which matches Chamath’s claim that betting on the trend suddenly turning would be unwise.
Key points with sources:
- NASA and NOAA global temperature analyses show that 2023 was the hottest year on record, surpassing all prior years in their datasets.
- Multiple agencies (e.g., Copernicus/ECMWF, NASA, NOAA) report that most of the warmest years on record have occurred since 2010, and that the 2010s and early 2020s continue to be significantly warmer than earlier decades, consistent with an ongoing upward trend rather than a reversal.
- Annual global mean temperatures for 2021, 2022, 2023, and preliminary assessments for 2024–2025 remain well above the 20th‑century average and are among the warmest years ever recorded, continuing the pattern observed in the prior decade rather than showing a cooling shift.
Given that several years after the June 2021 prediction have indeed followed the same warming trajectory (with new record or near‑record global temperatures instead of a notable cooling), the prediction that the established trend would keep going has, so far, been borne out.