Evidence splits the prediction into one accurate component and two that clearly did not materialize.

1. “Terrible fire season” in the western U.S.
   This part is basically correct. 2021 was widely described as another disastrous fire year for the American West, with nearly 7.7 million acres burned across the U.S., heavily concentrated in western states.(theguardian.com) California alone saw 7,396 fires burning about 2.57 million acres and major incidents like the Dixie Fire (over 963,000 acres, one of the largest in state history).(en.wikipedia.org) Oregon, Washington, New Mexico and Colorado also had intense seasons with large fires like Bootleg (413,765 acres in OR) and significant statewide acreage burned.(en.wikipedia.org) So the “terrible fire season” call was directionally right.

2. “Brownouts … throughout a lot of the western states” in 2021
   What we actually see is:

• California: In 2021 it used Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) and more aggressive protection settings to reduce wildfire risk, leading to both planned and unplanned outages (e.g., PG&E PSPS events in January, August, September, October 2021, and a separate protection-settings program that caused nearly 600 unplanned outages affecting ~650,000 customers July–Nov 2021).(information.auditor.ca.gov) These were fire‑prevention or equipment‑protection shutoffs, not classic supply‑shortage brownouts across the wider West.
• Broader western grid: Articles explaining California’s emergency procedures note that rotating supply‑driven outages (“rolling blackouts”) last occurred in 2020, during a prior heat wave, and are described as relatively infrequent; they are not reported as a recurring feature of summer 2021.(capradio.org)
• Pacific Northwest example: During the June–July 2021 heat wave, Avista Utilities imposed rolling blackouts in Spokane, WA, affecting tens of thousands of customers over several days to relieve stress on the local distribution system.(spokesman.com) A follow‑up analysis explicitly contrasts this with Texas, stating that Spokane’s problem was distribution/equipment limits, not a regional shortage of generation, and that there was “plenty of power available” on the system.(techxplore.com)

Taken together, 2021 saw localized outages and wildfire‑safety shutoffs, but not the kind of widespread, supply‑driven brownouts “throughout a lot of the western states” that the prediction implies. The available reporting and reliability analyses do not show multiple western states suffering recurring brownouts from generation shortfall in 2021.

3. “Some version of [the Texas 2021 power crisis] will happen in many places in the US” during 2021

• The February 2021 Texas power crisis (Winter Storm Uri) was a large‑scale generation and fuel‑supply failure: more than 4.5 million customers in Texas lost power, some for days; ERCOT and the Southwest Power Pool ordered rolling blackouts across 14 states during the storm.(en.wikipedia.org) This is the event Chamath refers to as having happened “a few months ago.”
• The question is whether new Texas‑like grid or supply crises emerged elsewhere later in 2021. Beyond localized events like the Spokane rolling blackouts and various storm‑damage outages, the record does not show additional, Texas‑scale generation shortfall crises or multi‑state grid emergencies of similar nature and national significance in the latter half of 2021. The major systemic reliability failure of that year remains the February storm itself.

Since the normalized prediction bundles these claims—severe western fires plus widespread brownouts across many western states plus multiple Texas‑like grid crises around the U.S. in 2021—it only partially matches reality. The fire‑season part is right, but the broader, systemic brownout and multi‑region crisis components did not occur as predicted. On balance, that makes the overall prediction wrong, despite getting the wildfire risk directionally correct.