ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E36: New FTC Chair, breaking up big tech, government silent spying, Jon Stewart, wildfires & more
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Friedberg @ 00:17:59Right
politicstech
Within a couple of years after June 2021 (by around mid-2023), a public and policy debate will emerge in the United States explicitly weighing consumer benefits from low prices and free services provided by big tech monopolies versus the value of increased competition and innovation in the business world, in the context of new antitrust or regulatory actions against large technology companies.
And I don't think that we're really having that debate. And I think that that debate will inevitably kind of arise over the next couple of years if in.View on YouTube
Explanation

Within roughly two years after June 2021, U.S. policy and public debate did in fact center on the tradeoff Friedberg described.

  1. Congressional antitrust bills against Big Tech (2021–2023) – The American Innovation and Choice Online Act and related bills targeting Amazon, Apple, Google and other platforms sparked a highly visible fight. Industry and allied groups warned the bills would undermine low prices, free/cheap services, Amazon’s Prime benefits, selection and convenience for consumers, explicitly arguing that antitrust reforms were abandoning the traditional consumer‑welfare/low‑price focus. (cnbc.com) Bill supporters (Klobuchar, Grassley, Tim Wu, CAP and small‑business coalitions) argued the same measures were needed to restore competition and innovation and open markets to new entrants. (ace-usa.org) Klobuchar’s own office publicly rebutted industry claims that her bill would harm Prime’s free shipping and Amazon Basics, underscoring that the political argument was framed in terms of consumer benefits vs. competition. (klobuchar.senate.gov)

  2. Broader antitrust framework fight focused on Big Tech – At the same time, Lina Khan and Jonathan Kanter advanced a "New Brandeis" approach, explicitly challenging the price‑focused consumer welfare standard that had long favored Big Tech on the grounds that their services are free or very cheap. (en.wikipedia.org) Think‑tank and industry commentary around Big Tech antitrust repeatedly emphasized the huge consumer surplus from free Google, Meta, Apple, and Amazon services, and warned that aggressive enforcement could sacrifice those benefits, while reform advocates countered that stronger action was needed to protect competition and innovation. (cato.org)

  3. Context of active cases and regulation – This debate unfolded alongside major antitrust and regulatory actions against Google (search and adtech), Meta (Instagram/WhatsApp), and Microsoft (Activision), and Biden’s 2021 competition executive order directing tougher scrutiny of Big Tech. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because this public and policy debate—explicitly pitting consumer price/"free service" benefits against competition and innovation goals in Big Tech antitrust—was prominent by 2021–2023, Friedberg’s prediction is best judged as right.