The prediction tied a renewed bull market in U.S. growth stocks to a short‑term demand spike subsiding by fall 2021, implying that once inflationary/demand pressures faded, “good times” would sustainably return for growth stocks relative to their spring 2021 inflation‑scare levels.

1. Condition didn’t really occur: U.S. CPI inflation rose from ~5% year‑over‑year in May 2021 to 6.2% in October and about 7.0% in December 2021, with broad‑based price pressures in energy, goods, and services. This indicates that the demand/inflation surge did not clearly subside by fall 2021; instead, it intensified into late 2021. (inflation.eu)

2. Growth stocks had only a brief spike, then a major bear market: As a proxy for large‑cap U.S. growth, QQQ (tracking the Nasdaq‑100) closed May 2021 at about $325 and rose to around $385–$390 by November–December 2021, a solid gain from the spring 2021 "inflation scare" levels. (statmuse.com) However, QQQ then suffered a ~35% drawdown from its late‑December 2021 peak to a low in November 2022. (assetsanalyzer.com) The broader Nasdaq Composite likewise entered a bear market from its November 2021 record high, falling roughly one‑third by late 2022. (nasdaq.com)

3. High‑beta growth/speculative names fared even worse: ARKK, a concentrated innovation/growth ETF, is a reasonable stand‑in for the kind of aggressive growth Chamath often discussed. It traded around $111 in May 2021, rose to about $120 in October 2021, but then collapsed to roughly $31 by December 2022—far below its spring 2021 levels. (digrin.com) That path is inconsistent with “good times are back” or a lasting bull phase starting in fall 2021.

4. Net assessment:

   • The stated trigger (a temporary demand spike fading by fall 2021) did not materialize; inflation stayed high and then accelerated.
   • Broad growth indexes (e.g., Nasdaq‑100) did briefly make new highs into late 2021 but then entered a deep bear market within months rather than a sustained, unambiguous bull phase from that point.
   • More speculative growth (ARKK‑style) ended up dramatically worse than during the spring 2021 scare.

Given these outcomes, the real world path did not match the scenario Chamath was describing: growth stocks did not transition into a clear, durable bull market with substantially better performance than spring 2021 once we reached fall 2021. On balance, this makes the prediction wrong, even allowing for some ambiguity about exact definitions of “growth stocks” and timeframe.