Friedberg’s prediction has three main parts: (1) a growing wave of progressive/decarceration-focused DAs in major cities, (2) those DAs causing a lot of “carnage” (significantly higher crime, deaths, destruction), and (3) an eventual political backlash once the public reacts.

1. Trend of progressive prosecutors. There was a prior national wave of reform‑oriented prosecutors elected in large jurisdictions (Boston, Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland, Austin, etc.), especially from 2016–2020, and they did frame themselves as aiming to reduce incarceration. (governing.com) But after 2021 this wave did not simply keep expanding “in every major city”: some new progressives were elected (e.g., Pamela Price in Alameda County, José Garza in Travis County), yet several high‑profile figures resigned, were recalled, were removed or lost reelection (Kim Gardner in St. Louis, Chesa Boudin in San Francisco, Pamela Price in Alameda, Mike Schmidt in Portland, Andrew Warren in Tampa). (en.wikipedia.org) So the movement continued but also clearly hit headwinds, rather than an unbroken, accelerating trend across “every major city.”

2. Claim that these DAs would cause major increases in crime, deaths, and destruction. The best available empirical work directly undercuts this causal claim:

   • A multi‑city study led by University of Toronto researchers found no evidence that jurisdictions with progressive prosecutors had larger homicide increases than those with traditional prosecutors in 2015–2019 and 2018–2021; if anything, homicide rose slightly less in progressive‑prosecutor cities. (americanprogress.org)
   • A follow‑up study using data from 2014–2023 for 62 large cities similarly found that homicide and other violent‑crime trends did not differ systematically by prosecutor type; homicides rose nationwide through 2021 and then began to fall in cities with all kinds of prosecutors, and robbery actually declined faster in progressive‑prosecutor cities. (americanprogress.org)
   • National FBI data show that after a pandemic‑era spike in murders in 2020–2021, homicides declined in 2022, 2023 and 2024, with the murder rate in 2024 at its lowest in nine years, even though many progressive DAs remained in office. (washingtonpost.com) Major cities like Baltimore, Philadelphia and New Orleans saw murders fall by over 50% from 2021 to 2025, again without a simple alignment to whether they had a progressive DA. (washingtonpost.com)
   • City‑level examples often cited as “progressive DA” jurisdictions show the same pattern: San Francisco’s homicides and overall violent crime dropped sharply by 2023–2024; Chicago’s homicides fell in 2022 and 2023 from their 2021 peak. (axios.com)

   Taken together, current research strongly suggests that the homicide surge was a national phenomenon tied to broader social and pandemic‑related factors, and that progressive/decarceration‑oriented DAs were not the driver of “carnage.” In other words, the key causal part of Friedberg’s prediction—that electing these DAs would cause significantly higher serious crime and deaths—has been empirically falsified.

3. Prediction of an eventual backlash. This part did occur. There has been a substantial, organized backlash against progressive prosecutors and decarceration policies:

   • Voters recalled Chesa Boudin in San Francisco in 2022 and Pamela Price in Alameda County in 2024, both after heavy criticism that they were too lenient. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Republican governors and legislatures in several states created mechanisms aimed explicitly at “rogue” or progressive prosecutors, such as Texas’s House Bill 17 allowing removal of DAs who decline to prosecute certain offenses, and Georgia’s Prosecuting Attorneys Qualifications Commission with power to discipline or remove local DAs. (houstonchronicle.com)
   • Florida’s governor suspended reform‑oriented state attorneys Andrew Warren and Monique Worrell; Warren then lost his 2024 election bid to the DeSantis‑appointed replacement, while Worrell only regained office in 2024 after a contested suspension. (en.wikipedia.org)

   At the same time, the backlash has not wiped out the movement. Some prominent progressive DAs, like Larry Krasner in Philadelphia and José Garza in Austin/Travis County, have won reelection by large margins, and Worrell herself was reelected despite her suspension. (axios.com) So there is backlash, but it coexists with continued voter support for progressive prosecutors in some cities.

Because the prediction hinges centrally on the idea that the election of progressive, decarceration‑focused DAs would cause a wave of increased crime, death, and destruction, and the best available data strongly contradict that causal link while showing crime falling again even where such DAs remain, the overall prediction is best judged wrong, despite its partially correct anticipation of political backlash.