By 2025, non‑dilutive platforms like revenue‑based financing and similar fintech products have grown quickly but remain small relative to traditional venture capital, and industry reports still frame them as alternatives or complements rather than as a replacement for equity VC. Global revenue‑based financing volume was around $3.3–3.4B in 2023 and about $5.7–5.8B in 2024, whereas global VC investment in 2024 was roughly $314B, so classic venture capital remains two orders of magnitude larger and continues to set norms on governance, pricing, and fund structures. (blog.tbrc.info)

One of Chamath’s examples, Clearbanc/Clearco, did not become a dominant new rail for startup funding; instead, it hit serious headwinds, laying off about 72% of staff and seeing both co‑founders exit the company amid financial difficulties in 2022–2023. (en.wikipedia.org) Pipe remains active and has expanded via embedded “Capital as a Service,” with new credit facilities that could support a bit over $1B in annual originations, but that scale is modest compared with the hundreds of billions deployed yearly by VC funds and has not forced a structural change in how mainstream VCs operate. (pipe.com)

Analyses of startup finance in 2024–2025 describe non‑dilutive instruments (revenue‑based financing, venture debt, grants, etc.) as part of a broader toolkit founders can blend with equity rounds, explicitly characterizing them as complementary to, not transformative of, traditional VC’s central role. (thescenarionist.com) With more than four years elapsed since the March 2021 prediction and venture capital’s core model (equity ownership, staged rounds, board seats) still largely intact, the claim that products like Pipe and Clearbanc would materially change how venture investing is done as an industry has not borne out.