Evidence shows that in the 12–18 months after March 2021, Tesla’s car prices did in fact rise on the order of ~20–30%, largely due to soaring battery raw‑material costs, and Tesla explicitly framed the hikes as a response to those costs.

Key points:

• Around the time of the prediction (Feb/March 2021), the cheapest Model 3 (Standard Range Plus) in the U.S. was about $36,990–$37,000, and the Model Y Long Range AWD started around $50,000. (electrek.co)

• By March 2022, the entry‑level Model 3 (RWD) cost about $48,190 including destination, roughly $11,000 more than a year earlier, i.e. close to a 30% increase versus its ~$37k level in early 2021. (autoguide.com) That’s directly in the 20–30% bracket Chamath cited.

• Reuters‑based reporting on Tesla’s own price data shows that between January 2021 and March 2022 the Model Y Long Range price in the U.S. rose about 20%, and the Model 3 Long Range about 10.6%; Reuters also noted that Tesla raised prices on the most affordable Model 3 and Y trims “about a dozen times” over that period. (y94.com) Independent trackers like CarsDirect and Kelley Blue Book similarly document multiple 2022 increases of 5–10% per adjustment, compounding to large jumps across the lineup. (carsdirect.com)

• These price hikes were explicitly tied to battery‑material inflation. On an April 2022 earnings call, Elon Musk said Tesla raised prices because of cost pressure and singled out lithium and other battery materials as the “single biggest cost growth item.” (spglobal.com) Broader analysis from AlixPartners reported that EV raw‑material costs (driven by lithium, nickel, cobalt) more than doubled from March 2020 to May 2022, forcing automakers including Tesla to “significantly raise prices.” (cnbc.com) Reporting on China notes Tesla repeatedly raised Model 3/Y prices there as lithium prices increased roughly tenfold from early 2021. (globaltimes.cn)

• Although Tesla later cut some prices in 2023–2024 amid changing demand and competition, Chamath’s prediction was about the near‑term consequence of rising input costs from 2021 forward. In that window, the typical transaction price for key Tesla models indeed rose on the order of 20–30%, and the company itself portrayed those increases as largely unavoidable given raw‑material inflation.

Given that: (1) flagship models like the entry‑level Model 3 saw nearly 30% price increases within roughly a year, (2) at least one core variant (Model Y Long Range) rose ~20% over that span, and (3) Tesla and outside analysts tie these hikes directly to lithium/nickel/cobalt cost spikes, Chamath’s prediction that “the cost of Teslas are going to go up by 20 or 30%” and that this would be hard for Tesla to avoid is best classified as right in substance.