Jason tied his prediction to April 2021 and framed it as U.S. “life and economic activity” being broadly back to normal by then.

By late April 2021, there was clear improvement but the situation was still far from broadly normal on key dimensions:

• Labor market still badly damaged. The official U.S. unemployment rate in April 2021 was 6.1%, versus 3.5% immediately before the pandemic in January–February 2020—almost double the pre‑COVID rate, with a disappointing April jobs report showing far fewer new jobs than expected. (bls.gov)
• Travel and major activities not back to normal. TSA data summarized in December 2021 show average daily air passengers in April 2021 at ~1.4 million versus ~2.35 million in April 2019—about 60% of pre‑pandemic volume, indicating air travel and tourism were still heavily depressed. (factoftheday1.com) Large in‑person events, office work, and schools were still operating under substantial constraints in many places.
• Ongoing public‑health restrictions. As of March 1, 2021, 36 U.S. states plus D.C. still had mask mandates; many states maintained indoor mask requirements and capacity limits into and beyond April (e.g., Massachusetts and New Jersey kept indoor mask rules and percentage capacity caps through late April/May). (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) CDC’s own April 27, 2021 guidance relaxed masking only outdoors for fully vaccinated people, while still advising masks in indoor public settings and avoidance of large indoor gatherings—clear evidence that normal social life had not yet resumed. (cambridgema.gov)
• Pandemic still at high levels. Around April 28–29, 2021, roughly 43% of the U.S. population had received at least one vaccine dose and only about 30% were fully vaccinated. (archive.cdc.gov) At the same time, the U.S. was still reporting on the order of 50–70k new cases and ~700 deaths per day, far above any reasonable definition of a post‑pandemic normal. (cnbc.com)

There were early signs of behavioral rebound that match part of his mechanism (“people will jump back in once they see others doing so”). Restaurant data from OpenTable show seated diners at U.S. restaurants open for reservations reaching roughly 75% of 2019 levels on March 1, rising to about 87% on April 29, with some days near 97% of 2019 volumes—suggesting near‑normal dining activity in many areas. (kvia.com) Retail sales and consumer mobility were also recovering, but even optimistic commercial real‑estate analyses in late April 2021 still described rebound and recovery, not a return to baseline, and noted that mass transit and some categories of activity remained well below pre‑COVID norms. (cbre.com)

Overall, while certain consumer behaviors (especially dining out) were approaching normal by late April 2021, U.S. life and economic activity as a whole were still substantially constrained and materially different from pre‑pandemic conditions. Given his explicit April 2021 timeline and the broad scope (“life and economic activity”), the prediction did not come true.