E23: Radical DAs, breaking down FB/Google vs. Australia, sustained fear post-vaccine & fan questions!

The prediction explicitly describes a 20–30 year horizon “over the next 20 or 30 years” from 2021, i.e., roughly 2041–2051, for the emergence of a more competent U.S. authoritarian-style populist leader (“version 1.0 of the American Strongman or Strong Woman”). As of the current date (November 29, 2025), we are only about 4 years into that 20–30 year window. That is far too early to determine whether such a leader will or will not emerge, and there is no objective, widely accepted standard or evidence that a clearly defined figure matching this description has already appeared and consolidated power in the United States.

Because the prediction is explicitly about developments expected mainly decades in the future, and the specified timeframe has not yet elapsed, its accuracy cannot be evaluated at this point.

As of November 29, 2025, the Los Angeles Times is still operating as a distinct newspaper and brand. Its own website is actively publishing news stories dated November 29, 2025, and continues to sell subscriptions and promote its eNewspaper, confirming it remains a standalone publication rather than a shuttered or fully absorbed asset. (latimes.com)

In July 2025, owner Patrick Soon‑Shiong announced plans to form a new media entity, the “L.A. Times Next Network,” which would include the Los Angeles Times along with several of his other media and tech businesses, and to offer shares to the public via a Regulation A-style offering. This restructuring still treats the Los Angeles Times as a core, named component of the new company, not as a discontinued or merged-away title. (latimes.com) External coverage from Reuters, AP and others likewise describes the paper as a 143‑year‑old newspaper that will be taken public, not as an entity slated for closure. (investing.com) A current encyclopedia-style overview also notes that Soon‑Shiong announced in July 2025 that he would be taking the paper public within a year, again indicating ongoing operations. (en.wikipedia.org)

The normalized prediction was that it was very likely the Los Angeles Times would cease to exist as a distinct operating entity within roughly 4–5 years of February 2021, i.e., by sometime in 2025–2026. As of late 2025, that outcome has clearly not occurred, but the upper end of the forecast window (into 2026) has not yet passed. Because the specified time horizon is not over, we cannot definitively mark the prediction as right or wrong yet, even though present evidence points against it materializing on time; thus it is best classified as inconclusive (too early).

Friedberg was forecasting that by May–June 2021 enough Americans would be vaccinated that people would actually be flying without masks and feel comfortable doing so, essentially regardless of rules.

What happened:

1. Vaccination levels were indeed high by late June 2021. By June 27, 2021, about 54% of the total U.S. population had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose (about two‑thirds of adults). (naag.org) This satisfies the “enough people are vaccinated” part of his reasoning.

2. However, U.S. commercial air travel remained under a strict federal mask mandate. TSA began requiring masks across U.S. transportation networks (including airports and airplanes) starting February 2, 2021, initially through May 11. (tsa.gov) On April 30, 2021, TSA extended this requirement through September 13, 2021, thereby fully covering the May–June 2021 period. (tsa.gov) The mandate was then extended multiple times into 2022. (tsa.gov) In practice, passengers (except small children and a few exemptions) could not choose to fly maskless during May–June 2021.

3. Public attitudes also don’t support the idea that most vaccinated people were ready to fly maskless that early. A June 2, 2021 Economist/YouGov poll found that about 80% of vaccinated adults said they would wear a mask when traveling by plane, with mask‑wearing on planes broadly accepted across vaccination groups. (today.yougov.com) That suggests many vaccinated travelers still preferred masking on flights rather than feeling comfortable going without.

Because by May–June 2021 people were not actually flying without masks in the U.S., and available polling indicates most vaccinated Americans still intended to wear masks on planes, Friedberg’s concrete prediction about maskless, comfortable air travel in that timeframe did not come true. The vaccination part was roughly right, but the central behavioral claim (widespread, comfortable maskless flying by then) was wrong.

Evidence from spring and early summer 2021 matches Friedberg’s prediction that, even after COVID-19 vaccines were widely available in the U.S., many schools would still not be fully open and a substantial share of people would continue avoiding flying and normal social activities due to COVID concerns and rules.

1. Vaccines were widely available by spring 2021

• By April 2021, KFF reports that eligibility for COVID-19 vaccination was open to all U.S. adults and that a majority of adults had already received at least one dose (56%) or would get it as soon as possible, indicating broad availability and substantial uptake by mid‑2021. (kff.org)

2. Many schools remained closed or only partially open through the end of the 2020–21 school year

• Federal NAEP data for February 2021 show that only 39% of 4th graders and 29% of 8th graders were attending school full-time in person; 42% of 4th graders and 45% of 8th graders were still fully remote, meaning large numbers of students were not in open school buildings. (keyt.com)
• A Congressional Research Service summary of NCES data for May 2021 (still within the 2020–21 school year) reports that 63% of schools with 4th/8th graders were open full-time in person, but 79–80% still offered remote learning and about 40–45% still offered hybrid options, showing that substantial shares of students remained in remote or hybrid modes rather than fully reopened schools. (congress.gov)
• A cross‑state analysis of the NAEP school survey finds that in spring 2021 the average enrollment in remote or hybrid instruction was still around 41%, with extreme cases such as California where up to 97% of students were in remote/hybrid rather than fully in‑person schooling. (mdpi.com)
  Taken together, these data confirm that well into mid‑2021, many U.S. schools were not back to normal in‑person operation, matching Friedberg’s claim that “schools aren’t opening” even after vaccinations (interpreted more precisely as: many remained closed or only partially open).

3. A significant portion of people kept avoiding flying and other normal activities

• A Gallup survey in May 2021 found that, because of concern about the coronavirus, 40% of Americans said they had avoided traveling by airplane or public transportation in the previous week; 44% had avoided events with large crowds; 34% had avoided going to public places like stores or restaurants; and 26% had avoided small gatherings with family or friends. (news.gallup.com) This directly supports the idea that a significant portion of people were still refraining from normal social behaviors.
• Gallup’s June 2021 update notes that while many Americans felt their lives were “somewhat” back to normal, self‑reported social distancing and activity avoidance were still substantial, and these behaviors were explicitly linked to ongoing concern about COVID‑19. (news.gallup.com)
• TSA checkpoint data and industry reporting show that, although U.S. air travel rebounded strongly by June 2021, it had not fully recovered to 2019 levels. For example, TSA throughput in late June 2021 was frequently around 1.8–2.1 million passengers per day, compared with 2.3–2.7 million on comparable days in June 2019, with trade press noting that even the highest‑volume day in June 2021 was still “well shy” of peak 2019 traffic. (travelagentcentral.com) That gap is consistent with a sizable share of former or potential travelers still staying off planes.

4. Fear and rules as drivers

• The Gallup surveys cited above explicitly attribute people’s avoidance of crowds, travel, and public places to concern about the coronavirus, i.e., persistent fear of infection, even after vaccines became broadly available. (news.gallup.com)
• Policy-wise, the CRS review notes that as of May 21, 2021 only 14 states had ordered full‑time in‑person instruction for all or some grades; most states continued allowing or encouraging remote and hybrid options, reflecting ongoing institutional caution and rules that kept many students out of full‑time classrooms. (congress.gov)

Conclusion By mid‑2021, after vaccines were widely available and many Americans had been vaccinated, a large share of students were still not in fully open schools, and substantial portions of the public continued to avoid flying and other normal social behaviors due to COVID‑related concerns and policies. This aligns closely with Friedberg’s prediction, so the forecast is best judged as right.

Chesa Boudin was successfully recalled as San Francisco district attorney on June 7, 2022, about 16 months after the February 2021 podcast, with roughly 55–60% of voters backing his removal. Analyses of the recall link it directly to public frustration over crime, visible disorder, property crime, homelessness, and drug issues, and to a perception that Boudin’s progressive policies were too lenient on offenders.(en.wikipedia.org)

Following the recall, Mayor London Breed appointed Brooke Jenkins—who had actively campaigned for Boudin’s removal on a “soft-on-crime” critique—as interim DA, and she was later elected in her own right. Jenkins publicly promised to “restore order,” be tougher on repeat offenders, crack down on open-air drug use and property crime, and reassert more traditional prosecutorial discretion.【(latimes.com) Subsequent data show a clear policy shift under Jenkins: misdemeanor prosecutions rose to their highest level in over a decade, diversion into treatment programs dropped markedly, and the office increased charging and incarceration for low‑level offenses—moves widely characterized as a tougher, more traditional public‑safety stance compared with Boudin’s reforms.【(sfchronicle.com)

More broadly, San Francisco politics have continued to move in a similar direction, with voters later electing Mayor Daniel Lurie in 2024 on a platform of restoring order, tackling crime and homelessness, and replacing officials viewed as unwilling to prosecute quality‑of‑life crimes, reinforcing the sense of a backlash against the prior, more progressive approach.【(washingtonpost.com)

While the actual impact of these changes on crime and “lawlessness” is contested, Friedberg’s prediction was specifically about a political pendulum swing: that public reaction to rising crime and Boudin’s policies would soon trigger a reversal toward tougher public‑safety politics, exemplified by recall or election of more traditional prosecutors. The successful recall of Boudin and the subsequent policy shifts under Jenkins (and later mayoral politics) match that forecast closely in both substance and timing, so the prediction is best judged as right.

Jason tied his prediction to April 2021 and framed it as U.S. “life and economic activity” being broadly back to normal by then.

By late April 2021, there was clear improvement but the situation was still far from broadly normal on key dimensions:

• Labor market still badly damaged. The official U.S. unemployment rate in April 2021 was 6.1%, versus 3.5% immediately before the pandemic in January–February 2020—almost double the pre‑COVID rate, with a disappointing April jobs report showing far fewer new jobs than expected. (bls.gov)
• Travel and major activities not back to normal. TSA data summarized in December 2021 show average daily air passengers in April 2021 at ~1.4 million versus ~2.35 million in April 2019—about 60% of pre‑pandemic volume, indicating air travel and tourism were still heavily depressed. (factoftheday1.com) Large in‑person events, office work, and schools were still operating under substantial constraints in many places.
• Ongoing public‑health restrictions. As of March 1, 2021, 36 U.S. states plus D.C. still had mask mandates; many states maintained indoor mask requirements and capacity limits into and beyond April (e.g., Massachusetts and New Jersey kept indoor mask rules and percentage capacity caps through late April/May). (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) CDC’s own April 27, 2021 guidance relaxed masking only outdoors for fully vaccinated people, while still advising masks in indoor public settings and avoidance of large indoor gatherings—clear evidence that normal social life had not yet resumed. (cambridgema.gov)
• Pandemic still at high levels. Around April 28–29, 2021, roughly 43% of the U.S. population had received at least one vaccine dose and only about 30% were fully vaccinated. (archive.cdc.gov) At the same time, the U.S. was still reporting on the order of 50–70k new cases and ~700 deaths per day, far above any reasonable definition of a post‑pandemic normal. (cnbc.com)

There were early signs of behavioral rebound that match part of his mechanism (“people will jump back in once they see others doing so”). Restaurant data from OpenTable show seated diners at U.S. restaurants open for reservations reaching roughly 75% of 2019 levels on March 1, rising to about 87% on April 29, with some days near 97% of 2019 volumes—suggesting near‑normal dining activity in many areas. (kvia.com) Retail sales and consumer mobility were also recovering, but even optimistic commercial real‑estate analyses in late April 2021 still described rebound and recovery, not a return to baseline, and noted that mass transit and some categories of activity remained well below pre‑COVID norms. (cbre.com)

Overall, while certain consumer behaviors (especially dining out) were approaching normal by late April 2021, U.S. life and economic activity as a whole were still substantially constrained and materially different from pre‑pandemic conditions. Given his explicit April 2021 timeline and the broad scope (“life and economic activity”), the prediction did not come true.

Available public sources confirm that all four “besties” eventually received COVID-19 vaccinations but do not establish when each one was vaccinated relative to the April 1, 2021 deadline.

Evidence we do have:

• In the original timeframe, E25 (March 13, 2021) shows them discussing Biden’s vaccine timeline, California’s slow rollout, and how many other people they know have already been vaccinated, but they talk about eligibility, hacking the appointment system, and unused inventory rather than clearly stating that all four of them are already vaccinated.(podscripts.co)
• In E28, released April 1, 2021, they discuss vaccines, transmission, and planning a live show after everybody gets vaccinated, and Jason mentions that the U.S. is doing over 3 million shots per day. The segment focuses on population‑level rollout and future live events; it does not say that all four hosts themselves are already vaccinated by that date.(podscripts.co)
• By May 1, 2021 (E31, “Post‑vaccination virtue signaling…”), the show is explicitly framed around “post‑vaccination” behavior and mask‑wearing, indicating at least some or all of them had been vaccinated by then, but the transcript and summaries still don’t give specific shot dates for each host.(allinpodcastsummary.com)
• In a much later episode (E113), David Sacks explicitly says, “we all sat here, we all got vaccinated,” referring to the four hosts’ eventual decisions to take COVID vaccines, but he’s speaking retrospectively and does not indicate when, only that they ultimately did so.(podscripts.co)
• Broad web searches (including news, transcripts, fan discussions, and social media) for each host’s name plus terms like “got vaccinated,” “took the vaccine,” and specific dates do not yield reliable, dated statements of when each individual host received their first dose.(abc7news.com)

Because:

1. We can confirm that all four hosts eventually got vaccinated, but
2. We cannot find credible, dated evidence that each one had received a COVID‑19 vaccine by April 1, 2021, and
3. No transcript, summary, or interview clearly states “all four of us are vaccinated” on or before that date,

there isn’t enough verifiable information to say the prediction was clearly right or clearly wrong. The correct classification is therefore “ambiguous”: enough time has passed, but the truth of the prediction cannot be determined from public sources.

Evidence from March 2021 shows that within roughly 30 days of the Feb 20, 2021 recording date, multiple U.S. states had broadly opened COVID-19 vaccination in ways that would have allowed a motivated middle‑aged person (like any of the four hosts) to travel and get vaccinated.

1. States officially opening to all adults within 30 days

   • Alaska: On March 9, 2021, Gov. Mike Dunleavy announced that, effective immediately, the COVID‑19 vaccine was available to all individuals who live or work in Alaska aged 16 and older, making Alaska the first state to drop nearly all eligibility requirements. (gov.alaska.gov)
   • Mississippi: On March 15–16, 2021, Mississippi opened eligibility to all Mississippians aged 16 or older, effective March 16, becoming the first contiguous U.S. state to do so. (mississippitoday.org) State health bulletins at that time specify that vaccinations were available to Mississippi residents and out‑of‑state people who work in Mississippi. (content.govdelivery.com)
   • West Virginia: On March 22, 2021, Gov. Jim Justice removed remaining eligibility tiers and made all West Virginians aged 16+ eligible for vaccination. (wsaz.com)
   • A compiled national timeline confirms that by March 22, 2021, Alaska (Mar 9), Mississippi (Mar 16), and West Virginia (Mar 22) had all opened eligibility to the general 16+ population. (hbcunews.com)

2. Practical openness and vaccine tourism

   • Long before late March, vaccine tourism across state lines was already happening. Reports from early February 2021 describe Virginians and others traveling to neighboring states and Florida to get shots when appointments or eligibility at home were tighter. (whro.org)
   • Specifically for Mississippi, a February 9, 2021 report noted that more than 6,700 people from other states had already been vaccinated there, and state officials said they had no plans to require proof of residency, even while encouraging non‑residents to stay home. (wwno.org) Later technical language about “residents or out‑of‑state residents who work in Mississippi” did not fully eliminate the reality that thousands of non‑residents were able to be vaccinated in practice. (content.govdelivery.com)
   • National overviews of U.S. vaccination note that by March 2021 several states (including Alaska and Mississippi) had made vaccines available to all adults 16+ and that some tourists and undocumented immigrants were being vaccinated in the U.S., underscoring that access wasn’t strictly limited to in‑state residents. (en.wikipedia.org)

3. Matching Friedberg’s claim

   • Friedberg’s prediction was not that every American adult would be eligible by mid‑March, but that by roughly 30 days out there would be “enough places now that have open VAX or will in the next 30 days you can go get vaccinated” — i.e., that some U.S. states would be broadly open enough that any of the hosts could choose to travel and obtain a shot.
   • Within that 30‑day window (by about March 22, 2021), at least three states (Alaska, Mississippi, West Virginia) had fully opened eligibility to adults 16+, and documented vaccine tourism plus loose or inconsistently enforced residency checks meant non‑residents with the means and motivation were indeed traveling to such states for vaccination. (gov.alaska.gov)

Given that multiple U.S. states had broadly open vaccination to adults by that time, and that cross‑state “vaccine tourism” was already occurring, Friedberg’s core claim — that within about a month there would be enough places with open vaccination that the hosts could travel to get vaccinated — did come true.

Evidence from March–April 2021 shows that U.S. vaccine eligibility restrictions based on narrow priority tiers did largely “fall by the wayside” within roughly six weeks of the late‑February 2021 recording, even though overall demand was still high.

1. Context at the time of the prediction (late February 2021)

   • Early in 2021, vaccine supply was limited and most states strictly prioritized high‑risk groups (health‑care workers, nursing homes, older adults), with many older adults still unable to get vaccinated because supply remained constrained. (kff.org) This is the “nonsensical” maze of prioritization Friedberg was referring to.

2. What happened over the next ~6 weeks

   • On March 11, 2021, President Biden directed all states to make all adults eligible for vaccination no later than May 1, a clear signal that the federal government expected rapidly increasing supply and a move away from narrow prioritization rules. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • By late March, a growing number of states had already opened eligibility to all adults 16+ (for example, Alaska on March 9, Mississippi on March 16, West Virginia on March 22, Utah on March 24, Georgia on March 25, and Arizona in late March). (kvia.com)
   • Around March 29–31 (about 5–6 weeks after Feb 20), many more states—including Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ohio, North Dakota, Kansas, Minnesota, and Indiana—either opened or were in the process of opening eligibility to anyone 16 and older, effectively discarding the earlier, finely tiered priority phases. (kvia.com)
   • Federal communications by March 29 and April 6 explicitly emphasized that confusing eligibility rules and restrictions were ending, with Biden announcing that 90% of U.S. adults would be eligible by April 19 and then formally moving the national target so that all adults would be eligible by April 19. (bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov) By April 19, all states had in fact made adults 16+ eligible, meaning the priority‑tier system had been effectively abandoned nationwide. (naag.org)

3. Did supply actually “outstrip” the old prioritization rules?

   • Analyses from KFF note that for the first months of rollout, demand greatly exceeded supply and that supply constraints plus restricted eligibility meant most people couldn’t be vaccinated even if they wanted to. (kff.org) They estimate that the point where overall national supply started to outpace willing demand came only in late April or early May 2021, slightly after Friedberg’s six‑week horizon. (kff.org)
   • However, states began dropping rigid tiered restrictions in late March and early April precisely because rapidly rising supply (more Pfizer/Moderna output plus the J&J authorization) made it feasible to open up to all adults, even if demand still exceeded supply overall. News coverage at the time explicitly tied the quick relaxation of eligibility rules to expectations of much larger incoming vaccine shipments. (medicalxpress.com)

4. Assessment

   • Timing: Within about six weeks of Feb 20 (i.e., by the very beginning of April), a substantial share of U.S. states had already opened vaccines to all adults or announced imminent dates to do so, and the federal government had clearly set in motion the end of the tight prioritization regime.
   • Substance: The core claim—that increasing vaccine supply would force many of the restrictive priority rules to be relaxed or dropped in that timeframe—matches what actually happened. The only nuance is that demand still exceeded supply nationally; the mechanism (“supply outstrips demand”) was a bit early if interpreted literally at the national level. But his practical prediction about the collapse of restrictive eligibility rules within about six weeks due to improving supply was essentially borne out.

Given that the key observable outcome (widespread relaxation/abandonment of prioritization rules in roughly the predicted window, driven by rising supply) did in fact occur, the prediction is best classified as right, with the caveat that the tipping point where supply fully exceeded demand came a few weeks later.

Multiple data points show that by late April and into May 2021 U.S. vaccine supply was exceeding the short‑term public demand for shots.

• On April 23, 2021, an AP report described how "the supply of coronavirus vaccine doses in the U.S. outpaces demand," with states like Louisiana, Kansas, and Mississippi turning down all or part of their federal allocations because they could not use them. (medicalxpress.com)

• A May 8, 2021 report detailed that several states (e.g., Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Connecticut, South Carolina) requested only a fraction of their available allotments, explicitly citing softening demand and significant inventories already on hand; New York City was seeing daily shots down about 40% from a mid‑April peak. (dailysceptic.org)

• CDC data show U.S. daily vaccinations peaked in mid‑April 2021 (~3.3 million per day) and then declined sharply afterward, despite continued strong manufacturing and distribution, indicating that demand—not supply—became the binding constraint. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Policy and think‑tank analyses from March–June 2021 discussed the U.S. as having secured and soon to have a surplus of doses relative to the number of Americans willing to be vaccinated, anticipating large excess stocks by mid‑2021 and beyond. (washingtonpost.com)

Taken together, these sources show that by (and even slightly before) May 2021, available U.S. COVID‑19 vaccine doses exceeded near‑term public demand, matching Friedberg’s prediction of an oversupply relative to demand.

The prediction is about the state of manufacturing by the year 2050. The current date is November 29, 2025, so the target year has not yet been reached. Because the claim concerns a long-term future condition (the majority of manufactured goods being produced via bio-manufacturing), it cannot yet be evaluated as right or wrong. Therefore, it is too early to tell whether this prediction will come true.