• What was predicted?
  Friedberg said that within ~1 year of the Dec 2020 episode, “a lot of startups” would replicate AlphaFold-like techniques for protein folding and use them for drug discovery, and that around 50 such startups would be funded 12–18 months out (roughly Dec 2021–Jun 2022).(podscripts.co)

• Evidence that some of this happened:

  • DeepMind open‑sourced AlphaFold 2 and launched the AlphaFold Protein Structure Database in mid‑2021, which is widely acknowledged as catalyzing new research and commercial efforts around AI‑driven protein structure and drug discovery.(en.wikipedia.org)(forbes.com)
  • Multiple AI protein‑design / protein‑engineering startups were indeed founded in 2021–2022, often explicitly building on AlphaFold-era advances. Examples include:
    • Isomorphic Labs (Alphabet AI drug‑discovery company, explicitly drawing on AlphaFold technology, incorporated Feb 2021 and announced Nov 2021).(en.wikipedia.org)
    • Cradle (founded 2021, using machine learning and later generative AI for protein engineering; seed round announced in 2022).(en.wikipedia.org)
    • A BiopharmaTrend survey lists 12 AI‑powered biotech companies founded in 2021, including Perspix Biotech (AI‑driven protein engineering) and an early Profluent Bio effort in protein design, which together illustrate a broader wave of AI‑first protein and drug‑discovery startups in that period.(biopharmatrend.com)
  • These examples support the qualitative part of his claim that a noticeable cohort of new AI‑protein / protein‑design startups emerged within roughly a year of AlphaFold 2’s breakthrough.

• Where the prediction becomes unverifiable:

  • Friedberg’s more specific forecast was that on the order of 50 startups based on “some novel protein idea” would be funded in the 12–18 months after Dec 2020.(podscripts.co)
  • Publicly available surveys and retrospectives on AI‑powered biotech and protein‑design startups (e.g., the BiopharmaTrend 2021 list, general discussions of an expected “ecosystem” of AlphaFold‑driven startups in Forbes) describe a growing wave of companies but do not provide a comprehensive count anywhere near granular enough to verify whether ~50 distinct AlphaFold‑style protein startups actually closed funding rounds specifically between Dec 2021 and Jun 2022.(biopharmatrend.com)(forbes.com)
  • Determining the true count would require systematic access to private deal databases (PitchBook, Crunchbase, etc.) with detailed tagging for both "novel protein" focus and AlphaFold‑like techniques—information not available in open sources. No credible industry report or academic survey was found that retrospectively tallies “dozens” or “about 50” such companies funded in that exact 12–18‑month window.

• Conclusion:

  • The directional part of the prediction (a wave of new AI protein‑design / AlphaFold‑inspired startups within a year) is broadly supported by examples and contemporary commentary.
  • The quantitative part (≈50 funded startups in the Dec 2021–Jun 2022 window) cannot be reliably confirmed or refuted from public, citable sources.

Because the core of the prediction hinges on that specific magnitude ("you’ll see 50 startups getting funded 12 to 18 months from now") and there is no comprehensive data to check it, the overall assessment has to be ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.