As of November 29, 2025, the City and County of San Francisco has not filed for municipal (Chapter 9) bankruptcy. Recent coverage of the city’s finances discusses large budget deficits and Mayor Daniel Lurie’s 2025–26 budget proposal with deep cuts and use of reserves, but makes no mention of any bankruptcy filing.

For example, reporting on the 2025–26 budget describes San Francisco’s fiscal stress and proposed service reductions, not a Chapter 9 process or petition.【1news15】 Likewise, up-to-date lists and discussions of U.S. Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcies (which include notable cases like Detroit, Stockton, and others) do not list San Francisco among the municipalities that have filed.【2search12】

Because Chamath’s prediction allowed 10 years from November 2020 (until November 2030) and we are only five years into that window, there is still time for the event to occur. The fact that it has not happened yet does not invalidate the prediction. Therefore, the correct status today is that it is too early to tell whether the prediction will ultimately be right or wrong.