Why this prediction is judged wrong

Jason’s claim (Nov 2020) was that any Trump‑backed media network trying to compete with Fox News would:

1. Fail to secure strong backing;
2. Look like a weaker, “Breitbart Lite” outlet; and
3. Shut down within 24 months of launch.

What actually happened:

1. Trump did launch a Trump‑branded media network in practice – Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) with Truth Social at its core.

   • TMTG/Truth Social was announced in 2021 and Truth Social launched on Feb. 21, 2022 as an alt‑tech social media platform owned by Trump’s media company. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • That is clearly a Trump‑backed media operation (social network, news distribution, video, etc.), i.e., a media network in the broad sense.

2. It did secure substantial financial backing.

   • The planned SPAC merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) was structured to provide roughly $1.25 billion in capital (about $300M from DWAC’s trust plus a $1B PIPE), a level of funding inconsistent with “will not be able to get the backing.” (globenewswire.com)
   • Even after PIPE commitments were later unwound, DWAC still had hundreds of millions of dollars in its trust, and the merged Trump Media entity ultimately went public and commanded a multi‑billion‑dollar market cap, with Trump’s stake valued around $4 billion in late 2024. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • In 2024–25 TMTG reported hundreds of millions of dollars in annual losses yet was still able to announce a $400 million share buyback and pursue a $2.5 billion bitcoin‑treasury strategy and other crypto/ETF ventures—again indicating ample capital support rather than a failure to attract backing. (politico.com)

3. The core platform did not shut down within 24 months.

   • Truth Social launched in February 2022 and remains active as of late November 2025—over 3½ years later, well beyond the 24‑month window Jason predicted for shutdown. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • It is described as a small but ongoing platform (millions of monthly active users, continued app store presence, ongoing product and financial initiatives), not as a shuttered failure. (en.wikipedia.org)

4. Trump has also launched a TV‑style streaming platform without it collapsing (yet).

   • On July 7, 2025, Trump Media launched Truth+, a global TV streaming service carrying the conservative cable channel Newsmax and other video content, positioning itself in the same general conservative news/streaming space where Fox News and Fox Nation operate. (reuters.com)
   • Truth+ is only a few months old as of Nov. 29, 2025, so we can’t yet test the 24‑month shutdown claim for this specific platform—but its very launch, backed by a publicly traded company with hundreds of millions in cash and active capital‑raising plans, directly contradicts the idea that Trump “will not be able to get the backing for this network.” (reuters.com)

5. The only clearly Trump‑run product that did shut down quickly was a minor blog, not a Fox‑rival network.

   • Trump’s “From the Desk of Donald J. Trump” blog launched in May 2021 and was closed in less than a month due to low engagement. (truthout.org)
   • This was a simple blog page on his website, not a significant, well‑funded media network attempting to compete with Fox News; using it to claim the prediction came true would stretch the original context beyond reason.

Ambiguity about “compete with Fox News”

Jason’s original context was speculation that Trump would start a television or streaming news network to poach Fox’s audience. No standalone “Trump TV” cable channel has launched so far, so there is no direct one‑to‑one test of that narrow scenario. But the general factual assertions he made—Trump won’t get serious backing for a media network, and anything he does will die within 24 months—are clearly contradicted by the continued, well‑funded existence of TMTG/Truth Social and now Truth+.

Because the prediction’s key falsifiable components (no backing; shutdown within 24 months) have not held up when applied to Trump’s actual media ventures, the overall result is wrong.