The prediction window is 10–15 years from November 2020, i.e., until sometime between November 2030 and November 2035. As of November 29, 2025, only about five years have elapsed, so the time period for evaluating the prediction has not yet ended.

Available evidence indicates that the City and County of San Francisco has not filed for municipal (Chapter 9) bankruptcy since the podcast date:

• The city continues to issue new general obligation bonds and other debt instruments in 2024–2025, with detailed official statements posted by the Controller’s Office of Public Finance and EMMA, which would not be occurring in the same way if the city were in Chapter 9.
• San Francisco’s general obligation bond ratings as of late 2024 and 2025 remain in the AA/Aa range (Fitch AAA, Moody’s Aa1, S&P AA+), with only recent downgrades from Aaa/AAA—showing fiscal stress but clearly no default or bankruptcy event reported by the rating agencies or the city. (sf.gov)
• City financial reports describe deficits, revenue weakness, and use of layoffs and other measures to rebalance the budget, but do not mention any Chapter 9 filing or formal bankruptcy proceedings. (sfchronicle.com)

Because (1) San Francisco has not filed for municipal bankruptcy as of November 2025, and (2) there is still up to roughly ten years left in the prediction window, the correct classification today is “inconclusive (too early)”, not “right” or “wrong.”