Sacks’ forecast was that Figma’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) would reach roughly $1.5–2.0 billion within about two years after end‑2023, i.e., by late 2025 or very early 2026. This is clear from the episode transcript, where he walks through Figma’s ARR ramp and then says Adobe is paying ~25× end‑of‑next‑year (2023) ARR and that “within say two years after that” Figma would be at $1.5–2B of ARR. (podscripts.co)

What we know today:

• Independent estimates put Figma at about $600M ARR at the end of 2023, not the ~$800M 2023 ARR Sacks was assuming. (auditshq.com)
• As a now‑public company, Figma reports revenue, not total ARR, in its SEC filings and earnings releases. Recent results show:
  • Q1–Q3 2025 revenue totaling about $752M, with Q3 2025 revenue of $274.2M, which management describes as an “annual revenue run-rate of over $1.0 billion.” (investor.figma.com)
  • Figma’s updated full‑year 2025 guidance is $1.044–1.046B in revenue, implying a revenue (and likely ARR) level around ~$1B, not yet at $1.5B+ by late 2025. (y94.com)
• Figma’s IPO S‑1 and 10‑Q filings define ARR and give customer counts by ARR bands (e.g., number of customers over $10k and over $100k ARR), but do not disclose a single aggregate ARR figure for 2024–2025 that we could directly compare to the $1.5–2B target. (sec.gov)

Because:

1. The prediction window has not fully elapsed (we are still before “very early 2026”), and
2. Figma has not published a total ARR number for late 2025 that would definitively confirm or refute the $1.5–2B range,

we cannot say yet whether the prediction ultimately proves right or wrong. Available data suggest Figma is well below $1.5B ARR as of late 2025, but it is not mathematically impossible for ARR to grow substantially into early 2026, and the exact ARR figures are undisclosed.

Given both the remaining time in the forecast window and the lack of a published aggregate ARR metric, the correct status is **“inconclusive (too early)” rather than definitively right, wrong, or permanently ambiguous.