Sacks @ 01:29:01Inconclusive
politicseconomy
If the United States implements a wealth tax similar to those tried in France and Norway, high‑net‑worth individuals will move assets and/or residency abroad, actual tax revenues will fall short of projections, and legislators will respond by broadening the wealth tax to cover a significantly larger share of the population than initially targeted.
every time Wealth taxes get tried. What happens is the wealth flees and you never raise as much as you think you're going to. And then what happens is in order to raise that money, they have to apply it to more people.
Explanation
As of 30 Nov 2025, the United States has not implemented a federal wealth tax comparable to those discussed in France or Norway, so the conditional prediction cannot yet be evaluated.
- Proposals by figures like Elizabeth Warren and, more recently, Kamala Harris have advocated federal wealth taxes, but none have passed Congress or been enacted into law.
- Some U.S. states (e.g., California, New York, Washington) have floated or enacted measures targeting very high net worth or high income, but these are not nationwide wealth taxes of the type referenced in the quote, and data so far are limited and mixed on capital flight and revenue outcomes.
Because the core "if" condition—a U.S.-wide wealth tax similar to those in France/Norway—has not occurred, we cannot say whether the subsequent causal claims (wealth fleeing, revenue shortfalls vs projections, broadening the tax base) are right or wrong. The appropriate classification is therefore "inconclusive (too early)."