Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Sacks @ 01:05:53Inconclusive
techai
General‑purpose humanoid domestic robots that safely operate in typical homes (doing a broad range of household tasks) will *not* be widely available to consumers within 5 years from April 2024; their arrival as a domestic product will take longer than 5 years.
Jason, I don't think it's a five year time frame. I think it's longer than that.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction window is from early April 2024 to early April 2029. As of 30 November 2025, we are only ~1.5 years into that 5‑year period, so it is too early to know if general‑purpose humanoid domestic robots will fail to become widely available by April 2029.

Current market status:

  • 1X’s NEO “Home Robot” opened pre‑orders in October 2025, with deliveries planned for 2026. It targets private homes but is expensive (~$20,000 for early adopters) and initially relies heavily on teleoperation by remote humans, with the company explicitly positioning these early units as data‑gathering and training platforms rather than fully autonomous, general‑purpose home servants. This is not yet a mass‑market, widely adopted consumer product. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Tesla Optimus is in limited internal use and targeted first at factory tasks. Musk and coverage describe limited production in 2025, with availability to other businesses in 2026 and an eventual consumer version still several years away, with timelines often framed as 3–5+ years out from 2024–2025. As of late 2025, no consumer Optimus is on sale. (benzinga.com)
  • Agility Robotics’ Digit and similar humanoids (e.g., from Agility, Apptronik) are being deployed commercially in logistics, warehousing, and manufacturing, not as general‑purpose home robots. (agilityrobotics.com)
  • Industry coverage of leading humanoid‑robot firms (Tesla, Figure, 1X, Agility, Boston Dynamics, Apptronik) consistently emphasizes near‑term industrial and logistics use, with home use framed as a future step. (businessinsider.com)
  • Existing and upcoming domestic robots like Samsung’s Ballie and ASUS Zenbo are either non‑humanoid companion/smart‑home devices or relatively limited in capability, not the kind of general‑purpose humanoid doing a broad range of household tasks autonomously. (en.wikipedia.org)

So far, reality does not contradict Sacks’ claim: there are still no widely available, general‑purpose humanoid domestic robots in typical homes as of late 2025. However, because the key part of the prediction is that such robots will not be widely available by April 2029, and we have not yet reached that date, the correctness of the prediction cannot be definitively judged. It remains plausible but unproven, hence the result is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than clearly right or wrong.