As of November 30, 2025, there is no recognized civil war occurring in the United States; political institutions, elections, and law enforcement remain functioning nationwide, and major news and academic sources describe U.S. tensions in terms such as polarization, political violence, and in some cases democratic backsliding or risk of civil conflict, but not an actual civil war.

However, the prediction is:

If the current trend of politically motivated violence and intolerance of opposing speech in the United States continues, it will ultimately lead to a civil war.

Key points:

• It is explicitly conditional ("if the current trend continues"). Whether that trend continues indefinitely is itself uncertain and not fully observable yet.
• It has no explicit timeframe (no date or generation specified), so it is a long‑range, effectively open‑ended prediction.
• Since a U.S. civil war is a large, discrete event that has not happened yet, we cannot say the prediction is correct.
• Because the timeframe is unspecified and we are still well within the future in which such an event could occur, we also cannot confidently label it wrong.

Given the lack of a specified deadline and the fact that the predicted event (a U.S. civil war) has neither occurred nor been rendered impossible, the status of the prediction as of November 30, 2025 is inconclusive rather than right, wrong, or permanently ambiguous.