Sacks @ 01:14:19Inconclusive
aieconomy
If the US does not impose heavy new AI‑specific regulatory burdens, AI and its related build‑out will help drive US real GDP growth to approximately 4–5% annually over the next few years (roughly the late‑2020s period).
If we go down that path, we could sabotage this if we just allow it to happen, if we allow the innovators to do what they do best. I think this is going to drive 4 or 5% GDP growth for the next few years.View on YouTube
Explanation
It’s too early to evaluate this prediction.
- The prediction, made on 10 October 2025, concerned “the next few years,” i.e., roughly the late‑2020s. That horizon (multiple years after 2025) has not yet elapsed as of 30 November 2025, so we cannot know whether average U.S. real GDP growth will indeed run at ~4–5% annually over that future period.
- Current realized data show recent U.S. real GDP growth in the 2–3% range, not 4–5%. For example, BEA estimates real GDP grew 2.5% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 on an annual basis, with quarterly annualized rates like 2.3–3.1% in late 2024. (bea.gov) Early 2025 data are mixed, with an advance estimate showing a 0.3% annualized decline in Q1 2025 and later revisions showing a 3.8% annualized increase in Q2 2025, underscoring short‑term volatility rather than a clear multi‑year 4–5% trend. (apps.bea.gov)
- However, the prediction explicitly refers to average growth over the coming “few years” conditional on regulatory choices around AI. Multi‑year averages cannot be inferred from a few quarters of data, and long‑run effects of AI build‑out on productivity and growth would reasonably take more time to manifest and be measured.
Because the specified time window (the late‑2020s) has not yet occurred, and the claim is about a multi‑year future path of GDP growth under certain policy conditions, the accuracy of the prediction cannot yet be determined.