Last updated Nov 29, 2025
markets
Reddit’s planned IPO around March 2024 will be priced by underwriters at a level near the rumored $5 billion equity valuation and will be deemed a successful offering in market terms (i.e., the deal will price and trade without being withdrawn or significantly re-cut, and the stock will not break materially below the IPO price in its first days of trading).
The $5 billion valuation seems, I think, pretty good… the investment bankers will know how to price this to take it out and make it successful.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence shows that Sacks’s prediction substantially matches what happened:

  • IPO timing and valuation level: Reddit priced its IPO on March 20, 2024 at $34 per share, at the top of a $31–$34 range, implying roughly $6.4 billion in equity value (about $5.4 billion on a narrower share-count basis). This is close to the earlier ~$5 billion rumor, i.e., in the same valuation ballpark rather than far above it. (fortune.com)
  • Deal execution (no withdrawal or major re-cut): The offering went ahead as planned, priced at the top of the indicated range (not down-sized or repriced lower) and was reported to be 4–5x oversubscribed, consistent with a strong book and a clean execution by the underwriters. (reuters.com)
  • Initial trading and market reception: On March 21, 2024, Reddit began trading on the NYSE under ticker RDDT. The stock opened well above the IPO price, traded up as much as ~70% intraday, and closed around $50.4–$50.5, roughly 48% above the $34 IPO price, giving it a market cap near $9.5–10 billion. Major outlets described this as a strong / robust debut and a positive signal for the tech IPO market. (cnbc.com)
  • No material break below IPO price in the first days: Historical price data show that on March 22, 2024 (the second trading day), Reddit closed at $46.00 with an intraday low of $45.34, still well above the $34 IPO price. Later in April 2024 the lowest recorded price was about $37.35, which is still above the IPO level. Thus in the initial days—and in fact for many months—the stock never traded below its IPO price. (financecharts.com)
  • Longer-term context (doesn’t negate the call): Although Reddit later became quite volatile and at one point in March 2025 fell about 60% from a peak above $200 to roughly $110, coverage still notes it remained well above its IPO price (up roughly 200% from the offering). This later decline doesn’t contradict Sacks’s more limited claim about the IPO’s pricing and early trading. (ccn.com)

Given that the IPO was priced near the rumored $5B equity value, executed without being withdrawn or significantly re-cut, and traded strongly without breaking below the IPO price in its early days, Sacks’s prediction is best classified as right.