Evaluation timeframe

• The prediction was made in November 2020, about conditions "by next summer" (i.e., Northern Hemisphere summer 2021) and the following few months.

1. Was COVID-19 a “distant bad memory” and no longer a major active concern by summer 2021?

• On 15 July 2021, the WHO Emergency Committee explicitly concluded that the COVID‑19 pandemic still constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) and advised continuing intensive global response measures. (who.int)
• WHO situation reports from July 2021 show ~3.8 million new cases and ~69,000 deaths in a single week globally, with cases and deaths rising again, driven by variants such as Delta. (who.int)
• In the U.S., the highly transmissible Delta variant became dominant by early July 2021, leading to a major surge in cases; CDC reinstated indoor masking recommendations for vaccinated people by July 27, 2021. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Many regions (e.g., Eastern Mediterranean) were still in community transmission with millions of cumulative cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths as of late July 2021. (emro.who.int)

Given that the disease was surging, emergency status was formally maintained, and new restrictions were being reintroduced, COVID-19 clearly had not become a distant memory or ceased to be a major concern in daily life by summer 2021.

2. Did we just have 1–2 quarters of transition before normalcy?

• International bodies in 2021 were already warning of a “long, uneven and uncertain ascent” and a “Great Divergence” in recovery, not a brief 3–6 month transition back to normal. The IMF’s 2021 analysis projected that over 150 economies would still have per‑capita incomes below 2019 levels in 2021, with substantial output losses persisting through at least 2025. (imf.org)
• Subsequent waves (notably Omicron starting late 2021) and the fact that WHO did not lift the PHEIC designation until May 2023 confirm that the disruptive phase of the pandemic lasted years, not 1–2 quarters. (paho.org)

So the duration and intensity of the pandemic’s impact were significantly underestimated.

3. Did social life snap back with a big partying/dating surge?

• There was a pronounced short‑term rebound in some high‑income, highly vaccinated places, especially in the U.S.:
  • The phrase “Hot Vax Summer” became widely used in 2021 to describe expectations of a surge in dating, partying, and in‑person socializing after vaccination; media and social‑media usage of the term peaked in summer 2021. (covidlexicon.net)
  • Dating apps and nightlife in many U.S. cities saw strong activity as restrictions briefly eased.
• However, this surge was localized and short‑lived, and was followed quickly by renewed concern and restrictions as Delta cases and hospitalizations climbed again in mid‑ to late‑summer 2021. (en.wikipedia.org)

This means the “everyone will want to party” part had some truth in specific contexts, but it did not characterize the whole world or mark an enduring end to COVID‑related worries.

4. Did the global economy “snap back very fast”?

• While there was a rebound in global GDP in 2021, leading institutions emphasized that the recovery was partial, uneven, and scarring:
  • The IMF’s 2021 reports stress that recoveries were “diverging dangerously” across and within countries, with tourism‑dependent and low‑income economies lagging badly and facing long‑lasting damage. (imf.org)
  • The majority of countries were expected to remain below their pre‑pandemic income trajectories for years.

So the idea of a rapid, broad‑based global snap‑back was overly optimistic.

Overall judgment

• Core claims that COVID would be a distant memory by summer 2021 and that only 1–2 quarters of transition would be needed are clearly falsified by the ongoing global emergency status, major new waves, continued restrictions, and prolonged economic and social disruption.
• A narrow sub‑prediction—a temporary surge in partying/dating as vaccines rolled out in some rich countries—was directionally correct, but this does not rescue the overall forecast, which was about the end of COVID as a major concern and a quick, broad return to normal.

Conclusion: the prediction is mostly wrong in its main substance and timing, despite getting one secondary effect (a brief partying rebound) partly right.