Evidence from major international institutions shows that the world experienced a slowdown and high inflation after mid‑2022, but not a global recession starting in late 2022.

Key points:

• The IMF’s World Economic Outlook and subsequent updates report that global real GDP grew by roughly 3.5% in 2022 and about 3.0–3.2% in 2023–2024, i.e., the world economy kept expanding, albeit more slowly. (archive.yardeni.com)
• The OECD’s November 2022/early‑2023 outlook projected global growth of about 3.1% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023, explicitly stating that their baseline scenario was not a global recession but a significant slowdown. (marmomacchineinternational.com)
• In early 2023, the IMF upgraded its outlook and stated that output would be more resilient than previously expected and that a global recession would probably be avoided, reinforcing that the expected outcome was slowdown, not worldwide recession. (industryslice.com)
• The IMF’s own definition and historical list of global recessions (based on declines in per‑capita world GDP and other global indicators) recognize recessions in 1975, 1982, 1991, 2009 and the COVID‑19 recession of 2020—but do not list any new global recession beginning in 2022 or 2023. (en.wikipedia.org)
• While some major economies did enter recession or technical recession (for example, Germany in 2023 and the U.K. in the second half of 2023), these were country‑specific downturns within an overall growing world economy, not a synchronized global recession. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the "world headed for a global recession" scenario did not materialize—global growth slowed but remained positive, and leading institutions explicitly say a global recession was avoided—the prediction that a global recession would begin around late 2022 is best classified as wrong.