As of November 30, 2025, Obergefell v. Hodges (2015), which recognized a constitutional right to same‑sex marriage nationwide, has not been overturned or limited in a way that ends nationwide legal recognition of same‑sex marriage. The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturned Roe v. Wade and Casey, but it did not address Obergefell, and subsequent Supreme Court terms (2022–2025) have not included any decision reversing Obergefell.

Post‑Dobbs discussion has included concerns and speculation from some justices and commentators about revisiting substantive due process precedents, but no majority opinion has moved to overturn Obergefell. The Court has decided some related religious‑liberty cases (e.g., 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis in 2023) that refined the interaction between LGBTQ rights and the First Amendment, but these decisions left the underlying right to same‑sex civil marriage intact.

Given that more than three years have passed since the podcast (September 17, 2022) and more than three Supreme Court terms have elapsed after Dobbs without any reversal of nationwide legal recognition of same‑sex marriage, the prediction that “gay marriage is [not] at any risk of being overturned by the Supreme Court” has been accurate so far. Therefore, the prediction is best scored as right as of the current date.