The prediction is explicitly framed as a long‑term, historical judgment (“in the fullness of time… Israel’s Vietnam”), i.e., years to decades after the 2023–24 Gaza war. As of the evaluation date (30 Nov 2025), only about a year and a half has passed since the war began and the podcast aired, and the war itself is still ongoing with major uncertainty over its end state and political consequences. Current writing and polling therefore reflect contemporary opinion, not the eventual “historical consensus” the predictor is talking about.

On the "Israel’s Vietnam" analogy: a number of commentators and activists have used that framing or asked whether Gaza could become “Israel’s Vietnam,” but these are individual opinions and polemics, not any kind of settled consensus among historians or the broader public.(revolucion.org.es) The main encyclopedic treatments of the conflict still describe it in more neutral, descriptive terms and emphasize that it remains ongoing with evolving regional and international repercussions, which by definition means a stable retrospective judgment has not yet formed.(en.wikipedia.org)

On public sympathy for anti‑war protesters (e.g., students, tech workers): available polling during and shortly after the first big protest waves shows a sharply divided public, not an overwhelming or settled sympathy. For example, U.S. polls around the 2024 university Gaza encampments found roughly 28–40% of Americans supporting the protests and 42–47% opposing them; college students were more supportive (around 45% support), but the country as a whole was mixed and polarized.(en.wikipedia.org) That tells us how they’re seen now, not how they’ll be seen “in the fullness of time.”

Because:

• the predictor’s own time horizon is multi‑year to multi‑decade;
• the war and its political aftermath are still in flux; and
• existing data only speaks to short‑term, contested public opinion,

there is not yet enough information to say whether the Gaza war will ultimately be remembered as “Israel’s Vietnam” or whether today’s protesters will be broadly and historically re‑cast as sympathetic figures. The correct assessment at this point is therefore “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong.