The prediction is explicitly counterfactual: it says that if President Biden publicly embraced the U.S. trucker convoy, called for an end to COVID mandates, and announced a return to normalcy in early 2022, his job‑approval would rise about 5–10 points.

What actually happened:

• The Biden White House did not embrace the Canadian or prospective U.S. “Freedom Convoy” protests. In February 2022, Press Secretary Jen Psaki defended vaccine and mask requirements as effective, and characterized the trucker protests as the source of disruptions, while reiterating general support for peaceful protest but emphasizing their economic harms. (bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov)
• The administration repeatedly said it would “follow the science” and CDC guidance on masking and other measures, and Biden called moves to lift mask mandates “premature,” indicating no broad call from him to end COVID mandates at that time. (reason.com)
• In his March 1, 2022 State of the Union, Biden did say the U.S. was “moving forward safely, back to more normal routines” and urged Americans to get back to work, but he simultaneously framed this as part of an ongoing strategy to manage COVID with vaccines, treatments, and continued vigilance, not as a blanket announcement to end mandates. (pbs.org)

On approval ratings:

• Biden’s job approval in early 2022 was generally in the low‑40s across major polls, with fluctuations but no clearly attributable 5–10 point surge linked to a sudden, public embrace of trucker protests or a broad anti‑mandate pivot—because no such pivot occurred. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the antecedent conditions of the prediction never occurred (Biden did not publicly embrace the convoy or call for an end to mandates in the way described), we have no direct empirical way to test whether doing so would have raised his approval by 5–10 points. Observed approval trends reflect a different strategy than the one hypothesized.

Therefore, the forecast about what would have happened under an unrealized strategy cannot be clearly rated as right or wrong based on actual outcomes, even though enough time has passed. It remains a counterfactual, and thus ambiguous.