Real‑time and revised data show that after the weak first half of 2022, the U.S. economy did not experience the double‑dip pattern Sacks described.

• BEA data show real GDP growth was positive in every quarter from Q3 2022 through Q4 2024 (e.g., Q4 2023 +3.4% annualized; Q1 2024 +1.4%; Q4 2024 +2.3–2.4%). This is a sustained expansion, not a brief, “slightly positive” pause before another downturn beginning soon after late 2022. (apps.bea.gov)
• A summary table of quarterly real GDP growth through Q1 2025 shows continuous positive growth from Q3 2022 onward, with the first negative quarter after early 2022 only appearing in Q1 2025 (–0.3% annualized). (visualcapitalist.com) That is far later than “once the full impact of [2022] interest‑rate hikes is felt” and follows more than two years of solid growth.
• Even with the Q1 2025 contraction, there has been only one negative GDP quarter so far; by either the popular “two consecutive negative quarters” rule or the broader NBER standard, this does not yet constitute a new recession or a clear “second dip.” Major coverage notes that Q1 2025’s drop has raised concerns but does not itself mark a recession. (theguardian.com)
• The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the arbiter of U.S. business‑cycle dates, still lists the last recession as the COVID downturn that ended in April 2020 and has not announced any new peak or trough since then—implying one long expansion from mid‑2020 onward, not a double‑dip sequence. (nber.org)

Because (1) there was no downturn beginning shortly after late 2022, (2) growth instead remained robust through 2023–24, and (3) as of late 2025 there is still no officially recognized second recession following a brief positive blip, Sacks’s prediction of a double‑dip recession with the second dip starting after late 2022 has not materialized and is best judged wrong.