ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
← Back to hostEpisode
Friedberg @ 01:12:21Right
climatescience
If Atlantic sea surface temperatures continue their then-current trajectory without tapering off before late summer 2024, the August–October 2024 period will set new record-high sea surface temperatures in the main Atlantic hurricane formation region, and this will in turn lead to multiple massive hurricane events originating in the Atlantic that make landfall on the continental United States in that same 2024 season.
if this does not taper off or level off, we will see record sea surface temperatures in the August to October time frame, which will almost certainly push massive hurricane events out of the Atlantic. And they will find their way towards the continental U.S..View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence from NOAA and related climate analyses shows that the broad conditional setup Friedberg described largely occurred, and the main real‑world consequence he warned about did materialize.

  1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic/MDR

    • NOAA and other analyses note that the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) was at record‑warm levels going into the 2024 season, with SSTs in May–June already comparable to, or above, what is normally seen near the peak of the season. (climate.gov)
    • CSU’s post‑season assessment attributes the 2024 hurricane environment in August–October to “extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures” combined with cool‑neutral ENSO, producing record‑low vertical wind shear and extremely favorable late‑season conditions. (newsmediarelations.colostate.edu)
    • However, a detailed climate review for August 2024 reports that the MDR had its second‑warmest August on record, not the absolute warmest. (yaleclimateconnections.org) This means Friedberg’s phrase “record sea surface temperatures in the August to October time frame” is slightly overstated if interpreted as “calendar‑month all‑time record” for August, though daily and sub‑regional SSTs were still near record and exceptionally high.

  2. Multiple massive Atlantic hurricanes making U.S. landfall in 2024

    • The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was “extremely active and destructive,” with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes; NOAA and the NHC classify it as the third‑costliest Atlantic season on record. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • NOAA’s season wrap‑up notes that five hurricanes made landfall on the continental U.S., two of them as major hurricanes. (nesdis.noaa.gov) Those included:
      • Hurricane Helene (Category 4 at Florida landfall), which devastated the Big Bend region and parts of the Southeast and is described as one of the costliest and deadliest U.S. hurricanes on record. (en.wikipedia.org)
      • Hurricane Milton (Category 5 over the Gulf; Category 3 at Florida landfall), with over $34 billion in damage and widespread destruction in Florida and neighboring states. (en.wikipedia.org)
      • Additional U.S. hurricane landfalls included Beryl (Texas, Category 1), Debby (Florida, Category 1), and Francine (Louisiana, Category 2), all of which caused significant flooding and damage. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • CSU explicitly links the late‑season hyperactivity and these intense storms to the extremely warm Atlantic SSTs and low shear environment during August–October 2024. (newsmediarelations.colostate.edu)

Bottom line:
The Atlantic did remain anomalously and in many respects record‑warm into the peak of the 2024 season, and this environment did in fact produce multiple massive hurricanes from the Atlantic that struck the continental U.S. in 2024, notably Helene and Milton, plus several other hurricane landfalls. While the “record” wording for August MDR SST is not strictly perfect (it was second‑warmest by at least one metric), the core prediction—that continued extraordinary Atlantic warmth would yield multiple major U.S. hurricane impacts in 2024—was borne out. Hence the prediction is best judged as right, with a minor caveat on the precise SST superlative.