On the specific, testable parts of Friedberg’s prediction, U.S. society largely reverted to pre‑2020 norms within a couple of years of vaccines and cheap testing becoming widely available.

1. Large venues: masks and temperature checks

• By early–mid 2022, nearly all state and local general indoor mask mandates had been lifted, including for businesses and sports/entertainment venues; remaining requirements were mostly limited to healthcare, long‑term care, and a few specialized settings.(aarp.org)
• Washington, D.C., for example, explicitly ended its mask mandate for businesses, retail, gyms, restaurants, bars, and sports and entertainment venues as of March 1, 2022.(justia.com) This is inconsistent with the idea that such venues would keep mask requirements in place “permanently” or for many years after vaccines.
• High‑profile attractions that had used temperature checks (e.g., Walt Disney World) ended these screenings in May–June 2021, well before 2022, and did not reintroduce them as a standing policy.(blogmickey.com) Local examples from school and community sports by 2021 already show football games dropping temperature checks and other entry restrictions.(abc13.com) By 2025, routine temperature checks at big events are rare rather than a persistent norm.

2. K‑12 schools: routine COVID testing

• In August 2022, the CDC updated its K‑12 operational guidance and stated that it no longer recommended routine screening testing in schools, suggesting instead that screening be limited to higher‑risk activities or times of elevated transmission.(chalkbeat.org) This is the opposite of making regular testing a permanent, routine feature of schooling.
• Pediatric and school‑health groups (e.g., CHOP’s PolicyLab) similarly advised that weekly or routine testing was “no longer a necessary routine practice,” recommending only voluntary or targeted testing.(inquirer.com)
• Many large school testing programs were wound down entirely. Shield Illinois, a major state K‑12 testing initiative, performed its last SARS‑CoV‑2 assay on June 30, 2023.(en.wikipedia.org) District‑level guidance for 2023–24 (e.g., Douglas County School District in Colorado) explicitly treats COVID like a routine illness and states that staff will not require testing for students or staff to return after illness, nor monitor test or vaccination status.(dcsdk12.org)

3. Overall societal trajectory

• By 2023–25, COVID‑19 is generally managed as an endemic respiratory illness: federal programs for universal free home tests have been ended or scaled back, and most institutions operate without special entry screening or routine testing.(govfacts.org) While a few lasting changes remain (e.g., some masking in healthcare settings, more attention to ventilation), the specific scenarios Friedberg emphasized—temperature checks and mask requirements as ongoing norms at large venues, and routine testing of K‑12 students—did not become permanent or long‑term standard practice.

Because these concrete elements of the prediction are broadly contradicted by actual U.S. policy and behavior by 2022–2025, the forecast is best classified as wrong.