This prediction is about multi‑year to multi‑decadal changes in the frequency of rare storms (events with historical return periods of 1-in-100 or 1-in-500 years) driven by persistently warmer oceans. The podcast aired on 11 October 2024, and we only have about one year of subsequent data (through 30 November 2025), which is far too short to robustly evaluate a statement about how often such rare events will occur on average.

A few relevant points from the science:

• U.S. data do show a long‑term increase in heavy precipitation and extreme one‑day rainfall events over the past century, with especially strong increases since the late 20th century. This is physically linked to warmer oceans and a more moisture‑laden atmosphere, and is expected to continue. (epa.gov)
• The IPCC and U.S. National Climate Assessment project that rare heavy‑precipitation events become more frequent as global warming progresses, but the quantified increases are generally factors of ~1.3–2 (or a few times more frequent) for many heavy‑rain extremes over the 21st century, not an immediate shift to nationwide 1‑in‑100‑year storms happening every 2–3 years. (en.wikipedia.org)
• The Asheville flooding from Hurricane Helene in September 2024 has been characterized as an event with an annual recurrence interval greater than 1,000 years in parts of the southern Appalachians—i.e., extremely rare in the historical statistics. (content-drupal.climate.gov) One such extreme event soon after the prediction is directionally consistent with concerns about more severe storms, but a single event doesn’t establish a new long‑term average frequency.
• A 2023 analysis cited by the Washington Post found that about 20% of the U.S. has already seen roughly a fourfold increase in the likelihood of 100‑year rainfall (from ~1% to ~4% yearly probability), which would correspond to something like a 1‑in‑25‑year event on the old scale—substantial, but still not at the level of “every 2–3 years” nationally, and it is regional rather than U.S.-wide. (washingtonpost.com)
• By definition, estimating or re‑estimating 100‑year or 500‑year return periods requires many decades of observations and/or detailed modeling, and NOAA guidance emphasizes that these probabilities are statistical constructs evaluated over long periods, not something that can be judged from one or two years of weather. (nwrfc.noaa.gov)

Taken together: current science and observations are consistent with the direction of Friedberg’s concern (warmer oceans → more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation and some record‑breaking events). However, his specific quantitative claim—that across the United States, 1‑in‑100‑year storms will occur roughly every 2–3 years and 1‑in‑500‑year events every few years—cannot be confirmed or falsified from only one additional year of data, and existing studies do not yet document such an extreme nationwide frequency shift. Therefore, it is too early to say whether this prediction is right or wrong.