Friedberg @ 00:56:32Inconclusive
economyclimate
Over the next several decades, as the global economy becomes increasingly digital and automated, countries and businesses with cheaper and more abundant electricity will achieve superior economic performance, and the United States will suffer negative economic consequences if it is slower than competitors in achieving low-cost, abundant power.
The countries and the businesses that have a lower cost of electricity and a more abundant source of electricity will end up winning as the economy continues to progress towards a much more kind of digital state and an automated state over the next decades. So if we're going to be slower, we're going to suffer the consequences of that as a country.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s explicit horizon is “over the next decades” and refers to structural, long‑run shifts in the global economy as it becomes more digital and automated. As of November 30, 2025, only about one year has elapsed since the podcast (October 18, 2024), whereas “decades” implies something like 20–30+ years (e.g., into the 2040s–2050s). There is not nearly enough time elapsed to judge:
- whether countries with cheaper, more abundant electricity systematically achieve superior economic performance in a clearly attributable way, and
- whether the United States suffers negative economic consequences relative to competitors due specifically to being slower in achieving low‑cost, abundant power.
These are long‑term comparative outcomes that can’t be reliably evaluated on a ~1‑year timescale, regardless of any short‑term data on energy prices, deployment of renewables or nuclear, or GDP growth. Therefore, the correct classification today is “inconclusive (too early)”.