ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 00:21:17Inconclusive
techmarkets
Over time, if Starlink achieves broad satellite-to-phone availability, its subscriber base will grow from about 4 million in 2024 to on the order of 100 million or more, potentially reaching several hundred million subscribers and becoming the largest subscription business in history by subscriber count.
Starlink is apparently... running at 4 million subs right now... If we can get satellite to phone and you can get Starlink more broadly available, this could be 100 million subscriber business. I mean, this could be it could be the biggest businesses on the on the on the earth. It could be the largest subscription business in the history of humanity... it could be hundreds of millions of subscribers. It could even be crazy.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction is about long‑term potential, not about reaching 100M+ subscribers by a specific year.

  1. Current Starlink scale vs. the prediction

    • SpaceX confirmed Starlink passed about 4 million customers in late September 2024, matching the baseline figure discussed on the podcast. (techcrunch.com)
    • Public data and reporting show growth to roughly 8–8.5 million users by late 2025, far short of the 100M+ range discussed in the prediction. (en.wikipedia.org)

  2. Condition on satellite‑to‑phone availability
    The prediction explicitly hinges on “if we can get satellite to phone and you can get Starlink more broadly available”. As of late 2025, Starlink has begun satellite‑to‑phone services (e.g., text messaging in partnership with mobile carriers) but does not yet have fully broad, mature satellite‑to‑phone coverage for mass‑market data and voice; this is still being built out via spectrum deals and new satellite technology. (washingtonpost.com)

  3. No clear falsification window
    The claim is framed as “over time… this could be a 100 million subscriber business… it could be the largest subscription business in the history of humanity.” Since no time horizon is specified and the key prerequisite (ubiquitous satellite‑to‑phone) is still emerging, we cannot yet say whether Starlink will or will not eventually reach 100M+ subscribers and become the largest subscription business by count.

Because the claim is explicitly conditional and open‑ended in time, and Starlink is still far from 100M subscribers but growing quickly, the correct evaluation as of November 30, 2025 is “inconclusive (too early to tell).”