Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
healthscience
In 2022, cellular reprogramming/Yamanaka-factor-based age reversal and the Altos Labs effort to commercialize it will receive major mainstream media attention, including being featured on the front cover of multiple high-profile magazines within that year.
What I what will be the new frontier in biotech and will completely rewrite Like, you know, the course of humanity is if we can take drugs and for a short period of time, completely reverse the age of our cells. And it sounds so crazy and so wacky, but it's being now proven in a single week. We've now had an amazing paper published, and we've seen the startup announced their $3 billion of funding to pursue commercialization of this technology. And this is going to be the year, I think this will be the front cover of a lot of magazines this year, as people realize that this is real and that it's getting commercialized.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence shows that cellular reprogramming/Yamanaka-factor-based age reversal and Altos Labs did receive significant mainstream media coverage in early 2022, but the specific claim that it would be on the front cover of “a lot of” or multiple high‑profile magazines in 2022 is not borne out.

Mainstream attention in 2022 (this part of the prediction was correct):

  • Scientific American ran a substantial feature on January 21, 2022 titled “Billionaires Bankroll Cell Rejuvenation Tech as the Latest Gambit to Slow Aging”, explicitly centered on Yamanaka factors, partial cellular reprogramming, and billionaire‑backed companies including Altos Labs. (scientificamerican.com)
  • The Guardian published a long feature on February 17, 2022, “If they could turn back time: how tech billionaires are trying to reverse the ageing process”, focusing on Altos Labs, billionaire funding (Bezos, Milner, etc.), and cell rejuvenation research. (theguardian.com)
  • The Economist ran “A $3bn bet on finding the fountain of youth” on January 22, 2022, detailing Altos Labs, Yamanaka factors, and cellular rejuvenation as a major science & technology piece. (livemint.com)
  • Other mainstream and industry outlets (e.g., Financial Times, pharmaphorum) covered the Altos launch and its focus on cellular rejuvenation. (pharmaphorum.com)

Collectively, this shows high‑profile, general‑audience coverage of Altos Labs and Yamanaka‑factor‑based age‑reversal science in 2022, in line with Friedberg’s expectation that the field would get serious mainstream attention.

Front‑cover / multiple‑magazine claim (this is where the prediction fails):

  • New Scientist ran an April 27, 2022 feature, “Growing younger: Radical insights into ageing could help us reverse it,” about radical new ideas on ageing and potential reversal; a New Scientist marketing email later listed this as one of their “most popular cover stories,” indicating it was indeed a cover story for at least one issue. (newscientist.com) This supports one notable magazine cover centered on ageing/rejuvenation science.
  • However, The Economist’s own email to subscribers describes that same week’s “$3bn bet on finding the fountain of youth” piece as a Science & Technology article, while explicitly naming a different article (“the parable of Boris Johnson”) as the cover leader, implying the Altos/rejuvenation piece was not the magazine’s cover. (emailtuna.com)
  • Searches for 2022 covers of broad general‑interest magazines (e.g., Time, The New Yorker, Wired, The Atlantic, etc.) and for phrases like “Altos Labs cover story” or “Yamanaka factors magazine cover 2022” turn up feature articles and news stories, but no clear evidence that multiple such magazines put Altos Labs or Yamanaka‑factor age reversal on their front covers.

Given:

  • The general‑attention part of the prediction was clearly fulfilled (multiple major outlets ran detailed features on Altos and cellular reprogramming in early 2022), but
  • The stronger, specific claim—that this would be on the front cover of “a lot of” / multiple high‑profile magazines within 2022—has evidence for at most one clear cover story (New Scientist) and no evidence for the broader wave of front‑page magazine coverage Friedberg forecast (and in at least one prime candidate, The Economist, we have positive evidence it was not the cover),

the overall prediction, as normalized, is best scored as wrong. The core media‑attention trend was right, but the distinctive “this will be the front cover of a lot of magazines this year” component did not materialize at the scale claimed.