Evidence since 2022 supports Friedberg’s core claims that (a) private-market startup valuations would reprice materially downward from early‑2022 levels, (b) revenue/valuation multiples would compress back toward pre‑COVID norms rather than stay at 2020–2021 extremes, and (c) this reset would be sustained rather than a brief dip.

Key points:

• Large and continuing reset from 2021–early‑2022 highs: CB Insights’ valuation reports describe a “full‑blown reset” of private tech valuations by Q4 2022, with the reset continuing into 2023 and especially hitting later-stage companies. (cbinsights.com) PitchBook’s 2022 data (summarized by Mazanti) likewise shows late‑stage startups “hit the hardest” and a clear downtrend starting in late 2022. (mazantipulse.com) Carta’s Q4 2023 State of Private Markets report shows late‑stage median pre‑money valuations down ~42% from early‑2021, Series E+ valuations less than half their 2021–2022 levels, elevated down‑round rates, and 409A marks often flat or down—clear signs that private valuations reset meaningfully lower than early‑2022. (carta.com)

• Multiples/macro pricing back near pre‑COVID norms: PitchBook’s 2024 Annual US VC Valuations Report shows the median price/sales multiple for recently public VC‑backed tech companies fell from 20x+ in 2021 to about 6x and has stayed in a 4.5–6x range since mid‑2022, close to pre‑pandemic medians (roughly 4.5–7.7x). (scribd.com) Because private growth‑stage valuations are benchmarked heavily to these public comps, this is strong evidence that the sector’s pricing has reverted to something like pre‑COVID norms rather than staying at bubble‑era 2021 levels.

• Reset has persisted instead of snapping back: Multiple datasets show that, even by 2024–2025, valuation levels remain far below 2021 peaks. A 2025 analysis of enterprise SaaS funding using PitchBook data reports late‑stage VC median pre‑money valuations of about $74M in 2025 vs $278M in 2021 (a ~73% decline), characterizing this as a “valuation reset” executives must accept, not a brief blip. (developmentcorporate.com) Global and U.S. VC funding in 2024 is still well below 2021—Barron’s notes overall VC activity in 2024 is about 55% below the 2021 peak, with AI as a notable exception. (barrons.com) Q4 2023 Carta data also emphasizes that 2023’s deal volumes and capital raised resemble 2018–2019 pre‑pandemic conditions more than 2020–2021, indicating a structural, longer‑lasting shift rather than a short‑lived panic. (carta.com) Q2 2025 venture‑capital trend reports still speak of a “valuation reset” and show seed and Series A medians declining year‑over‑year as investors apply stricter pricing anchored to lower public comps. (premium.f1gmat.com)

• Nuances (do not overturn the prediction): Early‑stage valuations never corrected as sharply and in some cases remain above 2019 medians, and AI‑focused startups have often enjoyed elevated valuations and multiples relative to the rest of the market. (carta.com) But Friedberg’s statement concerned overall private‑market pricing and the direction and persistence of the repricing; on that, the broad VC market has indeed moved away from 2021‑style 50–100x revenue multiples and stayed much closer to pre‑COVID norms for several years.

Given the substantial and enduring drop in private startup valuations and revenue/price‑to‑sales multiples from their 2021–early‑2022 extremes back toward pre‑COVID ranges, and the fact that this lower‑multiple regime has persisted through at least 2024–2025 rather than proving transient, the prediction is best classified as right (while acknowledging pockets of exception such as AI and relatively stickier early‑stage rounds).