Now, it is very likely that this sort of an amendment to the California Constitution is not constitutional and actually cannot be made and will not actually go into enforcement, even if the voters do vote to approve it.
As of November 30, 2025, the proposed one‑time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires exists only as a proposed initiative, commonly called the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act or California Billionaire Tax Act. Organizers filed it with the California Attorney General on October 21–22, 2025 and are just beginning to gather signatures to qualify it for the November 2026 ballot.(seiu-uhw.org)
Current reporting and campaign materials describe the measure’s substance and signature requirements but do not indicate that:
- Voters have yet voted on it (it has not appeared on any ballot), or
- Any court has ruled on its constitutionality or blocked it from taking effect (it has not even been enacted).(axios.com)
Some policy analysis pieces explicitly say that the tax would likely face constitutional challenges in the future, but they describe anticipated litigation, not any decided case.(californiapolicycenter.org)
Because the key contingencies in Friedberg’s prediction—voters approving the amendment and courts then finding it unconstitutional so it never goes into effect—have not yet occurred or been tested, there is not enough information to declare the prediction right or wrong at this time.