Friedberg’s statement was explicitly conditional on U.S. residential real estate prices falling roughly 30% from then‑current levels. National data show that this trigger has not occurred. Zillow’s Home Value Index shows the typical U.S. home value in December 2022 was only about 0.7% below its June 2022 peak, not anywhere near 30%. (zillow.com) Redfin estimates the total value of U.S. housing fell about 4.9% from June to December 2022, again far short of a 30% price collapse. (foxbusiness.com) The National Association of Realtors reported that the median existing‑home price hit a record for 2023 and remained at or near record highs in 2024 and mid‑2025, with June 2025’s national median around $435,300. (pbs.org) Case‑Shiller data and subsequent reporting show home prices still rising year‑over‑year (albeit slowly) into 2025, not falling on a crash scale. (wsj.com) Even in particularly weak markets such as San Francisco, peak‑to‑trough nominal declines have generally been in the 10–15% range, not 30%. (nypost.com) Meanwhile, mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates, while ticking up for some FHA/VA borrowers, remain low by historical standards and far from a 2008‑style crisis. (mba.org) Because the antecedent of his conditional prediction (a ~30% national home‑price correction) has not happened, we have no empirical basis to judge whether the consequent (widespread serious financial problems for Americans driven by that price drop plus high rates and inability to refinance) would have occurred. The correct evaluation is therefore that the prediction is inconclusive rather than right or wrong.