Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
healthscience
A realistic timeframe for achieving broad, whole-body reversal of human aging using approaches like Yamanaka factors is on the order of 30 years from 2023 (i.e., not expected before roughly the early 2050s).
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Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, only about 2 years have elapsed since the January 2023 prediction of a ~30‑year timeframe (i.e., around the early 2050s) for broad, whole‑body reversal of human aging using approaches like Yamanaka factors.

Current status from the scientific and biotech literature:

  • Yamanaka factor–based partial reprogramming has shown age-reversal effects in cells and some animal models (e.g., mice), including rejuvenation of certain tissues and extension of lifespan in progeroid models, but not whole‑body, clinically deployed human rejuvenation.
  • Major companies and institutes (e.g., Altos Labs, Calico, academic labs) are investigating cellular reprogramming and other longevity approaches, but these are in preclinical or very early clinical stages and far from demonstrated, safe, whole‑body age reversal in humans.

The prediction was essentially "we will not have broad, whole‑body reversal of human aging before roughly the early 2050s." That claim concerns future decades (2023–2050+). We are still at the very beginning of that interval, and nothing observed so far contradicts or confirms the long‑term timing. Therefore it is too early to judge the accuracy of the 30‑year timeframe.