Friedberg @ 01:27:18Inconclusive
economyclimate
As China expands renewables and nuclear power, its average retail electricity price will decline to below $0.06 per kWh in the future (by around 2050), remaining significantly below U.S. retail electricity prices.
Just to give you a sense on the relative cost of electricity, China is about 7 to $0.09 a kilowatt hour. The US is 17 to $0.25 a kilowatt hour, and China is projected to drop their price to less than $0.06 due to the expansion of renewables and nuclear power in the country.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction’s timeline is “in the future (by around 2050)”, while today is 2025-11-30, so we are only ~1/2 to 1/3 of the way through the period Friedberg is talking about. It is therefore too early to judge the long‑run claim that China’s average retail electricity price will fall below $0.06/kWh and remain well below U.S. retail prices.
What we can say so far:
- Recent data (2023–2024) show China’s average end‑user electricity prices generally in the $0.07–0.09/kWh range (about 0.45–0.65 CNY/kWh), while U.S. residential prices are much higher, typically $0.15–0.20+/kWh, with commercial/industrial somewhat lower.
- China is indeed expanding both renewable capacity (especially solar and wind) and nuclear power, with very large build‑out plans through 2035–2050, which could exert downward pressure on average costs, but outcomes will depend on many uncertain factors (grid investments, subsidies, fuel prices, policy, etc.).
Because the key part of the prediction is explicitly about the future level by ~2050 and the relative comparison at that time, and we are far from that date, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be determined.