I do, however, think that pretty quickly. There's a lot of people who are anyone but Trump that are going to rally behind her, and she seems to be polling well in the polls that have come out in the last couple of days here.View on YouTube
Evidence from the days immediately after Biden’s July 21, 2024 withdrawal shows that Democratic and anti-Trump voters rapidly consolidated behind Kamala Harris and that her head‑to‑head numbers against Trump improved relative to Biden’s.
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Rapid consolidation of ‘anyone but Trump’/Dem-aligned voters: A CNN poll conducted July 22–23 (immediately after Biden exited) found Trump 49% – Harris 46%, a smaller deficit than Biden’s earlier 6‑point gap with Trump among the same respondents. The article notes that Democratic and Democratic‑leaning voters were “broadly enthusiastic” about Harris and “willing to coalesce around her” as the new presumptive nominee; 76% of them said the party should nominate her. Harris held 95% of prior Biden supporters and picked up a share of voters who had previously said they’d support neither Biden nor Trump. (abc17news.com) This reflects exactly the kind of quick rallying of anti‑Trump voters Friedberg described.
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Polling performance strengthened vs. Biden: Aggregated national polling before Biden’s withdrawal (Biden vs. Trump) showed Trump leading by about 2.8 points on average (Trump 46.9% – Biden 44.1% across major averages through July 23). (en.wikipedia.org) In the immediate post‑withdrawal period, multiple national polls showed Harris vs. Trump essentially tied or with Harris slightly ahead: e.g., Reuters/Ipsos July 22–23 (Harris 44% – Trump 42%), New York Times/Siena July 22–24 (Trump 48% – Harris 46%), and Morning Consult July 22–24 (Harris 46% – Trump 45%). (en.wikipedia.org) These are all better margins than Biden’s recent matchups.
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Contemporaneous analyses explicitly say she’s doing better than Biden: Reuters reported that both a battleground‑state Emerson/The Hill series and a New York Times/Siena national poll showed Harris performing better against Trump than Biden had, and described Harris as “gaining momentum” after entering the race. (reuters.com) Politico’s write‑up of a July 23 NPR/PBS/Marist poll (Trump 46% – Harris 45%) emphasized that Harris was already neck‑and‑neck with Trump just a day after launching and that she had “quickly consolidated support within the Democratic Party, securing delegate pledges.” (politico.com) The Guardian similarly noted that Harris had narrowed Trump’s lead and reset the race after Biden dropped out. (theguardian.com)
Taken together, these data show that in the near term after Biden’s withdrawal, Democratic/anti‑Trump voters did rapidly rally to Harris, and her polling against Trump improved relative to Biden’s. That matches Friedberg’s prediction, so it should be judged right.