Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
From late March 2021, it will take approximately 1–2 weeks to free the Ever Given container ship from the Suez Canal by digging out sand and using tugboats to move it.
and now they think it's going to take another week or two before they'll be able to kind of dig all around the sand and tugboat the thing out of there.View on YouTube
Explanation

The Ever Given grounded in the Suez Canal on 23 March 2021 and was fully refloated/freed on 29 March 2021, ending the blockage after about six days total.(en.wikipedia.org)

Friedberg’s prediction (made on 27 March 2021) was that it would take “another week or two” to dig around the sand and use tugboats to free the ship—i.e., roughly 7–14 more days from that point. In reality, the ship was freed roughly 2 days later, on 29 March, well short of the predicted 1–2 week additional timeline.(en.wikipedia.org)

While his description of the method used (dredging sand/mud plus tugboats) matched what actually happened, the prediction we are evaluating is the timeframe, which was substantially off. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.