Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
climateeconomy
By the middle of the 2030s (around 2035), there is a significant likelihood that the world will experience serious material shortages (e.g., critical minerals and inputs) that constrain the scaling of renewable energy technologies.
And there appears to be, you know, a reasonable chance of a pretty serious material shortage for renewable sources by the middle of next decade.
Explanation

The prediction is explicitly time‑bound to “the middle of next decade” / around 2035. As of November 30, 2025, that date has not yet occurred, so it is too early to determine whether:

“a pretty serious material shortage for renewable sources”

will in fact constrain the scaling of renewable energy technologies globally.

Current literature and reporting do indicate potential future bottlenecks and risks in critical minerals (e.g., lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths) needed for batteries, wind turbines, and other clean‑energy technologies, but these are forward‑looking risk assessments and scenario analyses, not evidence that a 2035‑era, global, systemic shortage has already materialized. Because the forecast’s key evaluation date is still about a decade away, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be evaluated either as right or wrong.

Accordingly, the only defensible status at this time is that the prediction is too early to judge.