Friedberg @ 00:50:59Inconclusive
techscience
By roughly 2050, practical plasma fusion power systems will be operating on Earth (i.e., at least one fusion reactor will regularly produce net useful power).
over the next few decades, it is appearing more likely that we will have plasma fusion systems working on EarthView on YouTube
Explanation
It is too early to evaluate this prediction.
- The prediction horizon is “over the next few decades” and specifically normalized to by roughly 2050. As of today (November 30, 2025), there are still about 25 years left until 2050.
- Current fusion progress: experimental devices like ITER (tokamak/plasma fusion) are still under construction and not yet producing power for the grid; ITER’s first plasma is planned for the 2030s, and any demonstration of net electric power from follow‑on plants (e.g., DEMO-type reactors) is targeted further in the future. These projects are explicitly long‑term and not expected to become commercial power plants in the 2020s.
- Separately, the U.S. National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved scientific “ignition” via inertial confinement fusion in late 2022, where the fusion reaction output briefly exceeded the laser input energy, but this is a physics experiment, not a practical power plant producing regular net useful power to the grid.
Given that:
- No practical plasma fusion power plants are operating yet, but
- The deadline (around 2050) has not arrived and current progress does not rule out success within the next 25 years,
the correct status of the prediction as of 2025 is inconclusive (too early to tell).