ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Friedberg
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Friedberg @ 00:09:21Right
healtheconomy
Around 45 days after mid-March 2021 (i.e., by roughly late April 2021), the United States will reach a point with COVID-19 vaccination progress and inventory where the country is clearly beginning to exit the pandemic phase (“skating out of this thing”), with improving epidemiological conditions driven by high vaccine supply and uptake.
I do feel pretty good when you look at kind of the inventory forecast and you look at how many shots are being given per day, that in 45 days or so, we're going to get to a point that we're starting to skate out of this thingView on YouTube
Explanation

By roughly April 27–30, 2021 (about 45 days after mid‑March), the U.S. situation closely matched what Friedberg described:

  • Vaccine supply, eligibility, and uptake: By April 19, all U.S. states had opened COVID-19 vaccination to everyone 16+; Biden had moved the deadline for universal adult eligibility up to April 19, enabled by expanding vaccine availability. (cnbc.com) Around that time, about half of U.S. adults had received at least one dose, and roughly 80% of seniors had received at least one dose. (asisonline.org) As of April 29, the CDC reported about 2.6 million doses per day, with 43.3% of the total U.S. population (and 54.9% of adults) having at least one dose, and 30% of the total population fully vaccinated—evidence of both high supply and strong uptake. (archive.cdc.gov)

  • Improving epidemiological conditions: CDC’s April 30, 2021 Weekly Review shows the 7‑day average of daily new cases at 52,528, down 16.2% from the prior week and down 79% from the January 8 peak of 249,669. Hospitalizations and deaths were also falling, with 7‑day averages for new hospital admissions and deaths both declining compared with the previous week. (archive.cdc.gov) Active U.S. cases were dropping as well; one contemporaneous summary noted active cases fell by about 14% over the last week of April. (creativeloafing.com) While some states (e.g., Michigan, Massachusetts) had a spring bump in March–early April, their case and hospitalization peaks were passing by late April, with vaccines credited for limiting deaths. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • Contemporaneous framing as ‘turning the corner’: By early May 2021—within a week or two of the 45‑day window—the White House COVID‑19 response coordinator Jeff Zients and other officials were publicly saying the U.S. was “turning the corner” on the pandemic and moving toward a more normal summer, explicitly tying this to vaccination progress. (amny.com) CDC and White House briefings in mid‑April emphasized that widespread vaccination would help “end this pandemic” and “turn the corner on this public health crisis,” reinforcing that they viewed this as the beginning of the exit phase, even while warning that risks and variants remained. (bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov)

Later surges from Delta and Omicron show that this initial exit wasn’t permanent, but Friedberg’s prediction was about reaching, within ~45 days, a point where vaccine-driven progress and inventory put the U.S. clearly starting to come out of the acute pandemic phase. Given the substantial vaccine coverage, rapidly falling cases and severe outcomes relative to January, and official characterizations at the time, this call was directionally and temporally correct.