Chamath @ 01:38:35Inconclusive
techclimate
By approximately 2030, there will be on the order of 30 million electric vehicles in the United States.
when you take the number of Cars that are going to be in the country. The electric EV's. And then you multiply them. You say there's going to be let's say I think the estimate is in 20, 30, 30 million electric vehicles, let's say.View on YouTube
Explanation
It’s too early to score this prediction.
Chamath’s claim is about 2030: “I think the estimate is in 2030, 30 million electric vehicles.” The current date is November 30, 2025, so we are still about 4–5 years away from the target year. We can assess trajectory but not the final outcome.
As context, U.S. EV stock (battery electric + plug‑in hybrids) has been growing quickly but is still far below 30 million:
- The International Energy Agency estimated about 3 million electric cars in the U.S. fleet in 2023.
- Various industry and analyst forecasts (BloombergNEF, IEA, major automakers) project continued rapid growth toward the late 2020s, with cumulative EVs plausibly reaching the tens of millions by 2030, but the exact 2030 figure will depend on policy, charging build‑out, consumer adoption, and automaker product plans.
However, because 2030 has not yet occurred, we cannot say whether the U.S. will actually have “on the order of 30 million” EVs by that time. The most accurate status classification today is therefore inconclusive (too early).